By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - My 2010 Projections For PS360 Total HW Sold...Gap May Be Reduced Massively!

Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
 

The original $805 figure was for iSupply's 2006 teardown and was just the console material costs, not actually a manufacturing estimate and didn't include anything regarding cords, controller, manuals, packaging, etc.  You can't apply that directly to Sony 70% reduction figure with some fuzzy math thrown in for extras and claim a $40-50 loss. 

The only credible source in here says a $100 loss per slim.  In fact, the 70% figure you're working from even pre-dates that source, it's less recent.

I dont remember seeing any credible sources saying $100 loss per slim.   The only true credible number in this entire thread is the 70% umber, and that because its directly from Sony

If you have any legitimate reason to think of TV Tokyo and Daiwa Securities as not credible, I'd love to hear them.  

As is, actual analyst estimates seem better than trying to guess 70% less of something you don't know.  Real Source > Fuzzy Math 


I am wondering if you even watched the video or read the article yourself.  The analyst entire estimate is based off of a comment made by a Sony back in May of 2009 which stated that sony lost 10% on each PS3.  

Read closer.  It cited the public comment, that doesn't mean that's ALL Diawa was going off when making these projections.

I did, where was the mention of the 70% off of manufacturing costs, cause I didnt see it.

Daiwa didn't cite that figure.  Again, why are they not "credible" in your opinion?

Because they arent using any recent numbers from Sony.  They are hundreds of analysts out there what makes this one more credible than the next.   I suppose you believe everything Patcher says as well

Well, I'd hope Patcher's comments would be rooted in something more than Sony PR, a 2006 iSupply teardown and fuzzy math to connect the two.  Unless you can provide an actual sourced loss estimate for the slim, it looks like $100 is the best we can get.

1.  It wasnt Sony PR,  funny you mentioned that i should read the article before talking about it yet to failed to do the same

2.  I admitted that it was all estimates, exactly the same methods used by the analyst that your source used.

3.  And no,  $100 is not the best we can get, it will be shrugged off as another analyst spouting information in which he really knows nothing about.

1. The comment containing the figure was said during an open investor briefing.  Not exactly PR, but honestly it's close enough.  Any public comments from Sony officials would be.

2. Your estimate is fundamentally flawed as I've already pointed out.  You can't estimate a reduction in manufacturing costs from an estimated material costs, then add whatever you feel like cords and boxes cost.  And you have no clue what methods my source may or may not have used, since they didn't disclose that fully. 

3. That's fairly libelous to be honest.  Again, I'm surprised how easily you can discount one of the top consultants in the Japanese financial industry and one of Japan's national news broadcasts.  But then, I guess your own hobbled together fuzzy math is better?

 

Come back when you have a legitimate source with an actual figure.  Until then, it's $100 of blood. <3



Around the Network
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:

 

1.  It wasnt Sony PR,  funny you mentioned that i should read the article before talking about it yet to failed to do the same

2.  I admitted that it was all estimates, exactly the same methods used by the analyst that your source used.

3.  And no,  $100 is not the best we can get, it will be shrugged off as another analyst spouting information in which he really knows nothing about.

1. The comment containing the figure was said during an open investor briefing.  Not exactly PR, but honestly it's close enough.  Any public comments from Sony officials would be.

2. Your estimate is fundamentally flawed as I've already pointed out.  You can't estimate a reduction in manufacturing costs from an estimated material costs, then add whatever you feel like cords and boxes cost.  And you have no clue what methods my source may or may not have used, since they didn't disclose that fully. 

3. That's fairly libelous to be honest.  Again, I'm surprised how easily you can discount one of the top consultants in the Japanese financial industry and one of Japan's national news broadcasts.  But then, I guess your own hobbled together fuzzy math is better?

 

Come back when you have a legitimate source with an actual figure.  Until then, it's $100 of blood. <3

1.  Its ok you can say you were wrong, dont dance around it by saying close enough

2.  Well it was actually based off of cost of the materials themselves.   Shipping and box materials are easy for me to find out since I can and have asked accountants at work about this sort of thing.   The cords themselves are extemely cheap,  a 4 ft USB cable and at 10ft ethernet cable can be had on the internet for $4 total, not to mention the new power cable theyuse for the PS3 Slim is identical to every other component they make and can be had for about $5 directly from Sony.   And that leaves the controller and the composite cable they use,  which was the only truely fuzzy math I did, but i cant imagine that something they have made for 15 years with a few tweaks to it cost more than half of what they sell it for. especially the cable since the markup on cable are astronomical.

3.  Its really easy to discount them,  until they use manufacturing costs directly from Sony with all material costs and shipping and boxing costs included,  it will be discounted.   Cause an analyst is just someone who is paid to make educated guesses.



Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
Vetteman94 said:

 

1.  It wasnt Sony PR,  funny you mentioned that i should read the article before talking about it yet to failed to do the same

2.  I admitted that it was all estimates, exactly the same methods used by the analyst that your source used.

3.  And no,  $100 is not the best we can get, it will be shrugged off as another analyst spouting information in which he really knows nothing about.

1. The comment containing the figure was said during an open investor briefing.  Not exactly PR, but honestly it's close enough.  Any public comments from Sony officials would be.

2. Your estimate is fundamentally flawed as I've already pointed out.  You can't estimate a reduction in manufacturing costs from an estimated material costs, then add whatever you feel like cords and boxes cost.  And you have no clue what methods my source may or may not have used, since they didn't disclose that fully. 

3. That's fairly libelous to be honest.  Again, I'm surprised how easily you can discount one of the top consultants in the Japanese financial industry and one of Japan's national news broadcasts.  But then, I guess your own hobbled together fuzzy math is better?

 

Come back when you have a legitimate source with an actual figure.  Until then, it's $100 of blood. <3

1.  Its ok you can say you were wrong, dont dance around it by saying close enough

2.  Well it was actually based off of cost of the materials themselves.   Shipping and box materials are easy for me to find out since I can and have asked accountants at work about this sort of thing.   The cords themselves are extemely cheap,  a 4 ft USB cable and at 10ft ethernet cable can be had on the internet for $4 total, not to mention the new power cable theyuse for the PS3 Slim is identical to every other component they make and can be had for about $5 directly from Sony.   And that leaves the controller and the composite cable they use,  which was the only truely fuzzy math I did, but i cant imagine that something they have made for 15 years with a few tweaks to it cost more than half of what they sell it for. especially the cable since the markup on cable are astronomical.

3.  Its really easy to discount them,  until they use manufacturing costs directly from Sony with all material costs and shipping and boxing costs included,  it will be discounted.   Cause an analyst is just someone who is paid to make educated guesses.

1. Well, it wasn't even "wrong" per se.  Public relations also encompass investor relations.  At worst, I was being vague.

2. No.  Manufacturing Cost =/= Material Cost.  Do you honestly still not get why your math is inherently wrong here?

3. You don't know if they used them or not though, they didn't fully disclose sources or methods.  All you can go is their end figure, which you pretty obviously want to reject by any means possible.  Also, you clearly don't know what an analyst actually is.



CGI-Quality said:
Man o' man, ANOTHER thread that turns into: "Sony Profitability". You gotta love it...

OT: BHR, I would refute some of that OP, just for shits and giggles, but considering your track record, I have had enough crow for one year.

Yeah, I kinda fueled that arguement but I cant help it when someone gets a random analyst figure and hold onto it like its gold and is the final word.   I guess I should just quit



damn wat happened to the thread it went from sales predictions and if its possible for the ps3 gap to be around 3 mill by aug to talking bout wat sony is losing on the ps3 and e-penis's wats a e-penis anyway

anyway i dont think the slim is losing 100$ i dont even think the 80g phat was losing 100$ towards the end of its run some of the info could be false so that it would make you fell sorry for sony or so the consumer would think there getting more value for there money and then go out to buy a ps3

i guess no1 has any input to debate my projections i sure dont



                                                             

                                                                      Play Me

Around the Network
BHR-3 said:
damn wat happened to the thread it went from sales predictions and if its possible for the ps3 gap to be around 3 mill by aug to talking bout wat sony is losing on the ps3 and e-penis's wats a e-penis anyway

anyway i dont think the slim is losing 100$ i dont even think the 80g phat was losing 100$ towards the end of its run some of the info could be false so that it would make you fell sorry for sony or so the consumer would think there getting more value for there money and then go out to buy a ps3

i guess no1 has any input to debate my projections i sure dont

Seems nobody wants to argue with you anymore

If you made this thread a couple of month ago, the first page of posts would have been people flaming and laughing at you



                            

Guess no one expected the 360 slim to really shake things up.



psrock said:
I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3


and there you have it folks.