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Forums - Sales - My FF13 NA prediction.

silicon on 08 December 2009
letsdance said:
silicon said:
This is based off of pre-orders way in advance. This game is going to have a huge advertising budget... and most games are sold because of advertising.

Pre-orders during a holiday season for a game released in March are generally not going to be that great.

I agree that it might not hit 10 million in NA, 6 million combined is possible. It also depends how the game is reviewed.

Another factor could be that a lot of people are just importing it from Japan instead of pre-ordering it. If you were a big enough fan to pre-order it you might import it. Recently there was an article saying it was the number one exported game this gen.


its based off a lot more than that. Its based off of GoW pre-orders. ME2 pre-orders. BFBC pre-orders. Ps3 SW sales. Ps3 beating 360 in sales of the game. JRPGs not being as popular. HW sales not as high as Ps2...

Well.. just looking at that pre-order list is not good enough proof. If it if is, you should have also included previous examples of pre-order charts compared to first week sales that support your claims.

 

I'm not sure how PS3 beating 360 in sales helps your claim that the combined sales of PS3 and X360 will be less then FF12.

 

In terms of JRPGs not being as popular, that could be true... but there are no real big budget JRPGs that I'm aware of that can draw a NA audience. I have a feeling you're under estimating the power of pretty visuals.

 

 



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Aion on 08 December 2009

Yeah the Sony ps3 nation is a strong fanbase, do not underestimate them, 5 million on ps3 alone, 1 million on Xbox 360.



 

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letsdance on 08 December 2009

FF9 dipped but I'm going to write that one off as the end of the gen.



letsdance on 08 December 2009
silicon said:
letsdance said:
silicon said:
This is based off of pre-orders way in advance. This game is going to have a huge advertising budget... and most games are sold because of advertising.

Pre-orders during a holiday season for a game released in March are generally not going to be that great.

I agree that it might not hit 10 million in NA, 6 million combined is possible. It also depends how the game is reviewed.

Another factor could be that a lot of people are just importing it from Japan instead of pre-ordering it. If you were a big enough fan to pre-order it you might import it. Recently there was an article saying it was the number one exported game this gen.


its based off a lot more than that. Its based off of GoW pre-orders. ME2 pre-orders. BFBC pre-orders. Ps3 SW sales. Ps3 beating 360 in sales of the game. JRPGs not being as popular. HW sales not as high as Ps2...

Well.. just looking at that pre-order list is not good enough proof. If it if it, you should have also included previous examples of pre-order charts compared to first week sales that support your claims.

 

I'm not sure how PS3 beating 360 in sales helps your claim that the combined sales of PS3 and X360 will be less then FF12.

 

In terms of JRPGs not being as popular, that could be true... but there are no real big budget JRPGs that I'm aware of that can draw a NA audience. I have a feeling you're under estimating the power of pretty visuals.

 

 


I'm not just looking at pre-order charts. I'm also looking at So4 and ToV... I'm sure WKC will fall in there too. Rogue Galaxy had small sales but both of the Dark Cloud games had decent sales. If Level 5 sees similiar sales then WKC will see over a million sold (Doubtful). And someone mentioned U2 and my methology would have been spot on for pre-orders of that game 9 weeks before its launch... Ps3 beating 360 helps me out because in order to get sales SE wants the 360 really needs to start picking up some slack.



letsdance on 08 December 2009

BTW - You guys wanted another example besides U2... okay... L4D2. It had 47k 13 weeks before launch too.... but it got 10k weekly during the same time. FF13 needs to triple to get 10k weekly... L4D2 opened with lower week sales then FF12...

Basically guys L4D2 is outpacing FF13 and yet it still opened with less than my prediction which is 570k

19 Left 4 Dead 2 X360 47,960

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=4820

19 Left 4 Dead 2 X360 58,502

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=4915

10.5k difference. And it keeps these numbers.

14 Left 4 Dead 2 X360 76,059 9,375 11

10 Left 4 Dead 2 X360 86,346 10,287 10

So... unless FF13 quadruples its sales starting next week I dont think it'll outpace L4D2 which is needed to sell more than FF12

 

How about another one? ME2? it had 47k 13 weeks before release too... and that was getting 5k weekly back then. Again... more than FF13. It only has 100k 7 weeks before launch. FF13 needs WAY more than this to sell near FF12's numbers... but its tracking lower than ME2



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NicholasCage on 08 December 2009

FF13 first week ~250k? l0lplease.

God of War 3's pre-order number boosted when Sony announced the Ultimate edition. If Square Enix announces a special edition, pre orders will sky rocket.



Battlefield Bad Company 2 > Modern Warfare 2

letsdance on 08 December 2009

So explain away U2 ME2 and L4D2...



Euphoria14 on 08 December 2009

I am waiting for an announcement on a possible LE version that is worth the extra cash before I put down a reservation.



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radiantshadow92 on 08 December 2009

lol....im not going to say anything but....if your right....you deserve a hardy har har lol



--OkeyDokey-- on 08 December 2009

ioi already predicted 700k first week in America, which is better than FFXII. Somehow, it's still disappointing, but it won't do anywhere near as badly as you're predicting.