I've been thinking about why Microsoft would choose to launch Natal so late in the generation. Obviously part of the reason is to gain some momentum for the 360, but maybe the main reason is actually to get developers prepared for the next Xbox?

The reason why I thought this is, unless Microsoft is planning to launch the next Xbox REALLY late, by the time Natal comes out their next console should be in the final stages of R&D, so if Natal doesn't take take off isn't that too late to change their next-gen plans?

One thing's for sure... I can't see MS investing in Natal now and then doing something completely different for the next-gen. This tells me they have already revealed their biggest secret for the next gen, which makes it easier for Nintendo and Sony to counter it. It's a quite bold gamble if you think about it.

It could pay off if Natal is well received by developers and gamers, in which case they already have a good base of willing and knowledgeable developers to make good launch titles for their next console. If it's not well received, then MS is screwed in the next gen, or they have to quickly replan everything.

What do you think?

Pretty true I think, but I also think Sony will gamble on the wands for next generation. Not the same wands we know now, but the same principle of control at least. So in a way, they both spilled their secrets. I'm hoping both Sony and Microsoft will see good refinements in their respective techs, but I'm also curious as to what Nintendo will do, now that both Sony and Microsoft use cameras.

Fair analysis - Natal is also a way to maximize profits. Developing and researching a new system is costly. Most companies lose money in initially selling off consoles, so the longer a given console stays on the market, the more opportunities there will be for profitability.

Natal will lengthen the life of 360 by offering something new. It will definitely help to keep on the momentum for the XBox with lower development costs then a full-feldged new system.

You guys may not have noticed but I Ninja edited the OP a bit. The biggest change was to add this sentence:

"If it's not well received, then MS is screwed in the next gen, or they have to quickly replan everything."

Do you think this is a concern or not so much?

NJ5,

dont you think that ... Natal is the next 360 box ?
I m always wondering this ...

It's true, they will be in for some trouble next generation if it isn't well recieved. But I think it will be reasonably well recieved, and with the more refined tech that should be in use next generation, they might be able to make it even greater, and possibly rectify some of the bad press they might get with the current launch.

My biggest fear for Natal and next generation is what Microsoft decides to do with the regular controller. I think that you need buttons, and what Microsoft decides will be adequat for a regular controller, will be very important.

I think they won't fail with Natal, they do have the current core games and exclusives to fall back on in anycase and it isn't the main feature of the 360, maybe next gen the core gamers will take a back seat haha :p . Like the Wii Motion plus addon, it will take some time for penetration, its like you said, get in early to prep for the next gen. Ninty already defined the casual market, what types of games sell gangbusters and what don't, MS just has to read the stats to get a good start.

No, that would be way too crazy. For a company to be able to skip a gen they must have complete domination of the market, and even then they can lose it depending on what competitors do.

I'm quite sure any MS console will have a controller similar to the 360's. There's just no way Natal is good enough for all genres of gaming, even if it was they'd be risking way too much to completely ditch the controller. But if Natal has a mild or bad reception (which I see as a real possibility, especially since we don't even know anything about the software they'll make), it would be quite bad to launch a new console with a previously badly received major feature.

Yes. I look at it as a way for MS to test the waters, so to speak.

The reason for MS releasing project Natal this late in the Gen, this gen or ever is quite simple. Just three letters: Wii.

They're doing it all because of the Wii.

As for it's success, unless it's used primarily as a supplementary input option or Microsoft releases a handheld peripheral to work with it, I don't see it going too far.