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Forums - Sony - REALISTIC Sales Predictions For Gran Turismo

A Bad Clown on 06 December 2009
edjevink said:
A "realistic" GT5 sales prediction of 4.5 million units? Did you forget that of the 4 FULL Gran Turismo games that released so far, none of them sold less than 9 million units. Even Gran Turismo 5 Prologue already sold 4.17 million units according to Polyphony Digital.

It's all about the power of a franchise. Declining sales of a different franchise, or even a genre as a whole, is no indication for sales of a single franchise, specially not a popular one as Gran Turismo. Look at the sales of the RTS genre, they're not that great, but we all know that StarCraft 2 will sell like hotcakes. The same with the JRPG genre. Not many JRPG's can even sell a million units, while Final Fantasy XIII will sell millions.

Besides, i don't think the sales of the racing genre is declining that much, specially not the simulation racer genre. Look at the sales of Forza 2 compared to Forza 1, those improved A LOT. The newly released Forza 3 is doubling the sales of Forza 2 in the same timeframe.

Anyway, i don't expect GT5 sales to be below 8 million, more like 9-10 million.


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djs on 06 December 2009

People talk about small install base as the main reason for sales less than 10M.
Does anyone remember what was the install base of PS2 back in 2001 when GT3 launched?



Vashyo on 06 December 2009

GT is the only racing game series I actually like playing, I didn't buy prologue since it's pretty much only a "inferior" demo of the full game. GT5 is easily the most wanted game on the ps3.

I'd say over 1.5 million sold in the first week

and atleast 8 million sold lifetime



hunter_alien on 06 December 2009

My god your logic has soooo many flaws... First of all both SHIFT and F3 barely had a couple of weeks on the market. Second, F2 was heavily bundled so 3 could still outsell it. Oh, and since the underground games there where plenty of shitty games in the NFS franchise, something thats not the case with GT.

I say first week 1-2 million

LT: 8 million, maybe even more...



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ethomaz on 06 December 2009

For Gran Turismo 5, my predictions:

Fisrt Week (WW): 3+ million
Fisrt Month (WW): 4+ million
LTD (WW): 15+ million

Yeah... GT5 will be the first 15 million seller for PS3.



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Avarice28 on 06 December 2009

First week 1.3 million Others, 750 k America, and 250 k Japan

LTD 9-12 million

Console base will jump around the launch in all areas (new console owners) 2-3 million because of GT5



sabby_e17 on 06 December 2009

OP is completely wrong.

Week 1: 2 million
LT: 10 million+




gergroy on 06 December 2009
CGI-Quality said:
You're OP has just one BIG problem, it's saying that a NON--full Gran Tursimo release is an indication of what the first FULL Gran Turismo will do.

1st week - 1.2-1.5mill

LTD - 9-10mill.

I remember when you yelled at me once because I said it would sell 8 million life to date.  You were adamant that it would do 12 million+.  You seemed to have toned down your expectations a bit. :)



d21lewis on 06 December 2009

GT was a quantum leap above other racers in 1998. GT2 was the much hyped "guaranteed hit" sequel.

GT 3 was a great showcase for the power of the PS2. It set the bar higher, as far as depth and visuals go.

GT5 needs to have that level of awesome and nowadays, that's a pretty tall order. People (not me) already got a taste of GT5 with Prologue. I hope it whet their appetites. But part of me doesn't expect gamers to be as easily blown away, this time. Competition is much fiercer.

4-5 Million, lifetime.



d21lewis on 06 December 2009

As I often do, I post and then read everyone's comments. I'm afraid my guess was way lower than the average. Don't hurt me!!