It's unlikely Reach will be a system seller now for that exact reason.  Once the console has a certain install base, and you're onto repeat iterations of popular franchises, it's simply unlikely anyone hasn't already got a console for the franchise.

The reason I think the PS3 has the only (probably modest) system sellers left is that FFXIII will be the first FF release in Japan this gen, so it is likely a fair few people don't have console yet and will get it for the game, ditto with GT5 in Others.  360 big franchises already have their install base so subsequent releases are unlikely to deliver much.

Alan Wake and other new IP might, but they are unknowns - they could underperform as easily as over at this point, there is no point of reference to judge them from.

Neither console is likely to see big boosts anymore from new titles at this point anyway - price and market perception will be the main drivers.

As for Natal, I see that in the same vein as Alan Wake - and unknown, it might drive console sales, it might flop, same for Sony's purple wand.

You mean Sony has adapted the same strategy as MS?

I honestly can't imagine why to pay the grassroots, when so many want to do the job for free.

Alan Wake, ME2 and Conviction will be minor system sellers. Nothing major like GoW3 or GT5 until Halo Reach at the end of the year, I don't think.

All of those games that you mentioned fall into the heavy duty suck zone as far as i am concerned.  I don't like or play button mashers, shooters or racers.

I much prefer the sequel to the best game of the generation, Mass effect, to the entire Sony portfolio.  Fable is also better than anything Sony has lined up.  Alan Wake and Splinter Cell may be interesting if they aren't button mashers and if the game play doesn't get in the way of the Alan Wake story.

Nothing, and Natal won't move any systems either, just like the Sony wand.

Only thing that is moving systems after FF13 and GT5 are price cuts.

360 has splinter cell but thats a timed exclusive

Selling a few extra systems isnt a System seller.

Like I said a System seller causes a dramatic initial boost then continues a longer term boost of say 25% for a good long while.  Gran Tourismo is a System Seller, but because of when it is being released (after 30+ million PS3's on the market) and because GT5P was already released the vast majority of people that would purchase a PS3 for it have already puchased the PS3.

System sellers?

The only true one left is FFXIII i Japan and GT5. GoW3 will move som units but nothing big.

Halo Reach will move some but not as Halo 3. Next to that, nothing big but you never know when MS starts playing the hype drum.

MAG and Heavy Rain will not move systems, new IPs never does. Sony has a great libary but they will only be known as "show of" games for the system.

A true system seller would be if MS or Sony could get their hands on Modern Warfare 3 :)

Aren't we dealing with probabilities here, though?  FF in Japan will almost certainly drive a spike, whereas Alan Wake is an unknown.  It might, but it might as easily not.  I therefore struggle with seeing it as a 'known' system mover.

At this point only Reach seems to fall into the category where it is a known enough quantity to judge, but with Halo 3 still selling well, Halo Wars and most recently ODST, I find it hard to believe there are that many people without a 360 who will buy over and above the normal weekly average to get a new Halo game.

By the same logic Natal and the Sony Wand are also unknowns - there is no precedence to judge them buy and I find it 'iffy expecting them to be big system sellers at this point.

Mass Effect 2 doesn't seem big enough title and is a sequel, plus it was popular on PC and will no doubt see sales split across each platoforn, and Splinter Cell also doesn't seem likely to see enough extra buyers to 'shift the needle'.

Apart from FF in Japan and GT5 in Others I don't see any real likely system sellers left at this point, based on reasonable expectations.

I mean, Alan Wake might turn out to be, and the game looks good - but right now we're just guessing when we say it might move systems, whereas we pretty much know FF will cause a big spike in Japan.