Original sales projection for this FY was 26.5m i believe. Then it was lowered to 20m.

However, the closer we get to the holidays, the nearer the Wii is getting to its record breaking sales of 2008. At present it is, i believe, 3.5m down. Yet because of lower sales this year it would appear there will be no shortages this December, like there were last year. The source predicts normal December sales are roughly 2x November sales. With no supply probs i think it is possible for the Wii to have one or more record breaking weeks of 2m+ WW in December. Something it couldn't manage in 2008 due to shortages.

So i can see the deficit  of 3.5m to be severely eaten into in December, possibly even 2m worth. This would leave the Wii with a 1.5m-ish deficit going into Jan 2010. I am sure Nintendo would rather be close to their original projection rather than the lowered one, so i wouldn't be surprised if they dropped SMG2 in Q1 2010 and maybe 1 other moderately large game, either announced already or after holidays. This could further eat into the deficit.

I believe, in best case scenario, Nintendo could get within 1m of their original projection. That would be quite an achievement.

What does everyone else think?

nah it will do 20 i predict

I think the main reason it did so well for this past week is that people are being more intelligent with their money.

Black Friday provides good deals for people which means it is a very good time to buy stuff, as such I think there will be a bigger than usual drop going into next week.

Christmas week (whichever week is the largest sales wise) I think will still be smaller than last year by maybe 10% or so overall, it remains to be seen which console that effects the most (though the PS3 will obviously be up from last year) but I don't think the Wii will beat last years figure.

As for what they manage for the (fiscal) year, I think from now until March it should roughly equal last year, being slightly less for Christmas but making up for it in the new year, I think the Wii will still be 3-4million short of the original target, but the new target is an easy goal for sure.

I can see the Wii having a much bigger December than last year, due to not having supply issues. I remember being surprised last year, when December numbers were smaller than November numbers. Also, from what i read, i don't thnk there were any Wii bundles on black Friday. I believe 24m is a distinct possibilty, maybe even more!

Only USA figures.

You could be right about a bigger decemer than last year, but it certainly won't surpass it by much if it manages it, I think it more likely to fall 5-10% short, which is still no bad thing.