How close can Nintendo get to their original sales projection for the Wii?

[peachbuggy]

Original sales projection for this FY was 26.5m i believe. Then it was lowered to 20m.

However, the closer we get to the holidays, the nearer the Wii is getting to its record breaking sales of 2008. At present it is, i believe, 3.5m down. Yet because of lower sales this year it would appear there will be no shortages this December, like there were last year. The source predicts normal December sales are roughly 2x November sales. With no supply probs i think it is possible for the Wii to have one or more record breaking weeks of 2m+ WW in December. Something it couldn't manage in 2008 due to shortages.

So i can see the deficit  of 3.5m to be severely eaten into in December, possibly even 2m worth. This would leave the Wii with a 1.5m-ish deficit going into Jan 2010. I am sure Nintendo would rather be close to their original projection rather than the lowered one, so i wouldn't be surprised if they dropped SMG2 in Q1 2010 and maybe 1 other moderately large game, either announced already or after holidays. This could further eat into the deficit.

I believe, in best case scenario, Nintendo could get within 1m of their original projection. That would be quite an achievement.

What does everyone else think?