NSMBwii has so far sold more than the original ww in 2 weeks, and it hasn't even gotten to japan, with an estimated 700k, it may outsell Mario Kart Wii week 2

http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&reg2=All&game2=New+Super+Mario+Bros.+Wii+-+Wii&reg3=All&game3=Mario+Kart+Wii+-+Wii&weeks=2

The game also has outsold wii fit & Play numbers without being realeased in Japan, but Wii play had massive legs

http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Wii+Play+-+Wii&reg2=All&game2=New+Super+Mario+Bros.+Wii+-+Wii&reg3=All&game3=Wii+Fit+-+Wii&weeks=2

by looking at this it has enough chance of outselling wii play

I think it's going to sell less than NSMBDS because the handheld component allowed for multiples per household. I think this could be a faster hit than NSMBDS.

Sequels to big evergreen products usually have a larger opening, because the audience that was slowly being introduced originally then tends to make an earlier purchase.

The "it's going to sell for a year" based on the original is just a great card up the sleeve for being able to say "wait" in case expectations aren't met. It gives you sometime to come up with plan B. However, I fully expect this game to be slightly more frontloaded than most people are expecting.

^thats what people thought about mario kart wii, and it outsold the ds one.