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NSMBwii has so far sold more than the original ww in 2 weeks, and it hasn't even gotten to japan, with an estimated 700k, it may outsell Mario Kart Wii week 2

http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&reg2=All&game2=New+Super+Mario+Bros.+Wii+-+Wii&reg3=All&game3=Mario+Kart+Wii+-+Wii&weeks=2

The game also has outsold wii fit & Play numbers without being realeased in Japan, but Wii play had massive legs

http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Wii+Play+-+Wii&reg2=All&game2=New+Super+Mario+Bros.+Wii+-+Wii&reg3=All&game3=Wii+Fit+-+Wii&weeks=2

by looking at this it has enough chance of outselling wii play