thw first week in Nov.

Yeah I think that if it could possibly happen it would have to be the first week of November, there just isn't going to be another time this year that the PS3 can make enough headway in the USA.

I see the PS3 over the Xbox360 :

in japan
in europe
for the rest of the year

I see the Xbox360 over the PS3 :

in NA !
for the rest of the year

WW sales : Xbox360 > PS3.

To be honest, I reckon that come the end of the year, Microsoft and Sony will be selling at pretty much the same rate in Europe. I wouldn't even put it past MS to knock the equivalent of another $50 off the price of the 360 in Europe in early December, though it would be wiser to wait until GTA4 early next year for that.

Well I would worry abotu whether the PS3 will outsell the 360 on a WW weekly basis before worrying about when the PS3 will overtake the 360 in total sales.

A couple numbers to think about, the PS3 is 7.1 million units behind the 360 on WW basis. The PS3 has outsold the 360 on a WW Weekly basis 5 times (not including the PAL launch). The PS3's sales were slightly above 2 of those weeks and the other 3 weeks it sold around 40-60k more. That period coincided with the dubious first price cut. Given that outselling the 360 by 60k a week seems to be the limit fo the PS3's abilities it would take almost 2 years and 4 months of such sales for the PS3 to overtake the 360.

I think we all agree the 360 will outsell the PS3 for the rest fo the year, that would put the sales difference between the two at about 8.5 million at the end of the year. Assuming the PS3 outsell the 360 by 60k a week starting then it would be Oct 2010 before the PS3 outsells the 360.

So no outselling the 360 this year isn't possible, outselling the 360 next year is very very unlikley, outselling the 360 in 2009 is very unlikely, and outselling the 360 this generation is at this point unlikely. EDIT- Whoops, sorry, misread the title somehow :P.

Sqrl, I usually find myself agreeing with your posts, but not this particular one. The whole notion that "the real battle" between 360 and PS3 starts in 2008 is complete and utter nonsense. It unfairly discounts the sales that have taken place so far for both systems. It's almost as if we're supposed to give the PS3 a mulligan because it didn't sell as well as expected in the first year - uhh, sorry, but things don't work that way! Furthermore, holiday sales are much more important than the slow periods. The 360 has a very good chance to outsell the PS3 in America by 1 million units between now and 2008. If the PS3 were to outsell the 360 by 20k units per week (say, 60k to 40k on average) during the first six months of 08, it would still not have made up those holiday sales! The holidays are enormous. I don't understand why so many people think that Q1 2008 will be more important, when it will move about 1/3 the hardware and software.

And I have to say, 2007 was a lot more important for the PS3 (and all systems) than 2008. The eventual outcome of the console wars is always decided in the first 12 months that all major competitors are on the market, and this generation has been no different. It's still fun to watch the market, but the overall shape of things for the next 3-4 years is pretty clear by now, and won't change significantly.

This is the problem for Sony. All their major games were delayed until holiday 07, and then delayed again until just AFTER holiday 07. The worst possible time. Lost Planet proved that a game can still do pretty well soon after the holidays, but it certainly will struggle to move hardware at that time

Uncharted and Ratchet are the two games that could save Sony this christmas, they are good enough, but they need marketing

Well I can see where you are coming from but I must say I didn't mean to imply that the battle hasn't been going already for nearly a year. But rather that the battle will intensify and more specifically that the PS3 needs '08 to be a good year to stay in the race.

Now to explain a bit about why people believe Q1 2008 is so important. Let me start by just saying that from a purely numbers perspective you are right that the holidays are the most important part of the year. Now with that said, Q1 '08 is more important for the PS3 because it is when it will have all of its "ducks in a row" as it were. If in those conditions it is unable to mount a strong showing, even the most diehard of fans is going to have to begin facing facts. But if it is able to really put together a sales run in this period it builds momentum going into the next holiday and can revive developer interest and it has the beginnings of a much needed comeback.

With that in mind the current holiday is pretty much decided, and what I mean by that is that there aren't many surprise factors left that are going to suddenly have the PS3 outselling the 360. So realising that, we look at this Q1 period...and we see that its still largely up for grabs...and its outcome could determine the fate of the PS3 or at least the fate of the PS3 in holiday '08. And thus it is a very important period for the console and one I believe is truly "make or break".

So in conclusion, yes, the holidays are very important, but the fact that Sony has put a lot (not all) of their eggs into the early '08 basket means that they need to start off strong and stay strong during that period or its "game over man".

Thats how I see it anyways, I'm sure plenty of folks have a vastly different view, but I figured I would elaborate a bit so you would know where I was coming from a bit better.

Sqrl, I honestly just think there is a serious limit to how much Sony can boost its sales in Q1 next year. Or any console maker for that matter.