Sony's PS3 has outsold Microsoft's Xbox 360 for the past two weeks in the increasingly relevant battleground Europe.  It's safe to assume that Sony will achieve this again for the week just gone when the "others" numbers arrive tomorrow, albeit by a slimmer margin.  Japanese HD console sales have remained largely irrelevant for the last three months, although Sony's lead in Japan could begin to be significant as holidays approach.  Finally, Sony has a price cut due, as well as the recent release of the new 40gig SKU in the all-important North American market.  It is in this market that the Xbox 360 has been consistently outdoing the PS3, so any significant close in the sales gap could bring Sony's machine perilously close to outselling the Xbox 360 for at least one week this year.  In addition, Rachet & Clank, a game now believed by many to be the PS3's only system selling software this year has just been released, and we await its sales figures.

Do any of you believe that the PS3 will outsell the Xbox 360 for any week between now and January 1st, 2008? If so, how many weeks do you believe the PS3 can achieve this?

For my part, I think it will have to happen within the next three weeks, if at all, because with its final price cut for the year, and biggest title for the year now out, Sony has no substantial ammunition left for the last two months in the US market. 

I don't think so. The 80gb Motorstorm bundle was dropped to $499 last week in the US, but even this week most retailers are still advertising it as $599, as discussed in this thread. A price drop will only help sales if people know about it.

Yeah but surely people will catch onto it eventually? For my part, most of the stores here in Australia around me don't exactly seem to be running low on their stock of the $AU699.95 40gb model.

The title is a bit misleading, because the PS3 has already outsold the 360 in worldwide sales several times this year. If you mean, will it happen in the final nine weeks of the year, that's a different question entirely!

In short, I don't expect PS3 sales to pass 360 sales worldwide at any point before 2008. This past week, the 360 outsold the PS3 by about 75k units worldwide (180k to 108k); that's a pretty sizable margin, approaching double the PS3 number. Since the PS3 is not going to outsell the 360 in the Americas region this year (I hope we can all agree on that...), it needs to make up the difference in Europe and Japan. The PS3 price cut has already taken effect in Europe, and sales if anything should be declining slightly over the next few weeks, until the holiday season sees everyone's numbers rise. There's simply not enough difference between the two systems in Europe to affect the overall totals in a serious fashion. And although I expect PS3 sales in Japan to go up significantly for the holidays, Sony just isn't moving enough systems there either to make a sizable dent in the 360's Americas lead.

In other words, while it's certainly possible, I don't think it's likely to happen. If the PS3 had a huge holiday title releasing in the next few weeks to boost hardware sales, it would be a different story.

Yeah i realized that and i meant going forward for the rest of the year. I think there is just enough going on right now that in the next week or two the PS3 will get close to the Xbox 360 worldwide. But I do not believe the PS3 will actually pass the 360 anytime this year.

I don't remember who it was but a Sony executive was saying six months ago that developers don't think in terms of "whats the install base now?," they think "what will be the console's installed bases when I finish my game in two years?" His point was that he thought their was about to be an imminent turnaround that saw the PS3 growing FASTER than the 360. The problem is many games will be given the go ahead in the next 3-4 months and not only will the 360 already have a substantial lead, it will still be increasing it.

Even if the PS3 starts to sell more than the 360 in about March next year, we have truly seen the end of the masses of PS third-party exclusives of the last generation. Even if there was a dramatic turnaround in the PS3's fortune, it's too late in the game for them to justify anything other than multiplat or even 360 exclusive outside of hardcore Japan-only games.

Hmm, the holidays are a fickle thing and a console selling 500k one week might sell 200k the next during the period depending on several factors.

It is conceivable that the 360 dips while the PS3 spikes and we could see it happening. I don't think it will be indicative of any long term trend however as I think the PS3 will only start to battle its way back into contention against the 360 from week to week in early '08. Thats when the battle between the two systems begins in earnest.

I hope most Sony fans know that 2008 is live or die time for the PS3. It needs to have a good year or it will be stuck in 3rd for the rest of the generation. It doesn't have to get out of 3rd in 2008, it just needs a good year. I will avoid the ever perilous comparisons with other consoles but I do think it has a very respectable lineup for the early part of the year and I suspect Sony is well aware of the situation and planning the rest of the year accordingly.

Here is a question....

Its probable that for the last 6 months Microsoft has been going to developers saying look at our base, do something exclusive for us. 2008 looks like a great year for both systems game-wise, but after 2008 (unless FFXIII is in 2009) do Sony have any major titles whatsoever to release?

Edit: What I mean is that Microsoft will be working on the set of massive exclusives (first and third party) that will hit in their third/fourth year, which is the same time they'll be hitting the $199 sweet spot in the US.  With EVERY (LBP, Tekken 6, K2, MGS4, FFXIII, Singstar PS3) major PS3 title hitting in 2008, whats left in 2009. All the mulitplat major franchises like DMC4, GTA4, Silent Hill 4 etc are hitting next year as well.

As for the rest of this year, I'm not sure exactly when the price cuts are going into effect in each territory...I think it has already happened? If so, then PS3 is not going to surpass 360 again this year. If not, then it might still have a chance.

Sony really needed GTA IV, MGS IV or Final Fantasy this holiday. I believe next year will be too late in North America, although the system is doing nicely in Europe.

I don't think so:

1- The effect of the price cut and 40 GB model in Europe/Others is going to start decreasing from now on, and I actually have the suspicion that sales will go low in Europe once the 60 GB model sells out (which, depending on the country, has happened already; this week might prove or disprove my theory). The Xbox 360 will, at worst, have a small decrease there, and at best they'll have a nice increase as we approach the holiday season.

2- Xbox 360 sales will continue to be fantastic in America. The 40 GB PS3 model may do well there, but certainly not anywhere near as well as the 360.

3- Japan doesn't seem to be very attracted to the PS3, and I doubt the 40 GB model will be big there since it doesn't have BC and it's not much cheaper than the other models. The 360 doesn't sell well there, but the PS3 has at best a few tens of thousands of units per week of advantage over it, which is not enough to counter the situation in Western markets.

No it won't, not enough compelling software (yet) to push sales, maybe next year with obvious favorites such as MGS4, GOW3, GT5/Prologue, LBP, Killzone 2, etc. but not this holiday, they should just chalk this year up to a loss.