Just for fun and in case my original post made anyone wonder (and to not exclude the Wii), here's where current sales match up against Wii:

PS3's current total was reached by Wii around May 24, 2008.
(PS3 is 18 months behind despite lauching around the same time.)

360's current total was reached by Wii around Oct 11, 2008.
(360 is 13 months behind despite launching 1 year earlier.)

The flaw of this argument, is that the X360's head year is here looked upon as a liability, rather than a bonus, which is what it is.

If you insist on comparing them, compare them from the PsWii launch, that gives an image that's far better. It's not perfect, but it's fairer than this. The Ps3 hasn't gained any ground up until now, and the reason that it is gaining ground now, isn't that it's newer. Essentially, the 5.5 million advantage should be counted as a direct gain.

Welcome to 2009.

The market has seen considerable change, and Playstation is no longer the top dog. Perhaps looking at things with a less outdated perspective will allow you to acknowledge the PS3's current successes.

OP - there is a point at which the aligned launches argument fails, and we have long passed it.

A month after the PS3's release, an aligned launch comparison was fair. But by this point? If the PS3 hasn't caught up by now, it never will

and newbie3 - the Japanese people do not refuse to buy American products, they (like everyone else) buy the consoles with games they like to play, which is Mario, Wii Fit, GT5, FF, DQ, Layton, Brain training etc

but the 360 has lots of JRPS's on it but the japanese still dont give a shit. i would go as far as to say the 360 has more gmaes for the japanese than the ps3 does.

To encapsulate things a bit: Basically, what kowenicki projects is that after Holiday 2009, we will have PS3 sales = 360 sales since PS3 launch. Then we're back where we started with the 5.3 million headstart (Pineapple's "bonus") for the PS3 to overcome.

The difference now is that PS3 will be heading into that deficit at a "13-million unit per year" (and growing?) point in its life cycle instead of a "5.6 million unit per year" point. Unless there's another big momentum shift (Natal?) sales should even out some time in 2011.

But this is not what I wanted to point out. Argghh! I was just pointing out that 26.X million cume occurring at significant points in each console's life cycle.

Yoichi Wada (you know, the CEO of Square-Enix) actually just had an interesting interview about this. We seems to want to westernize the Japanese gaming market, and the biggest issue in the past has been marketing. SE is publishing MW2, and should that see a hit in Japan, there's a chance that the Japanese community will open up more to outside sources.

"The Japanese community tends to be closed," he told Ars. "In the past, Japanese retailers have said that Japanese gamers have their own idiosyncrasies and tastes, and that that is the reason why the audience is not accepting of overseas titles. But I believe that is not the case, it was just a matter of poorly executed marketing."

So he does 'kind of' say how Japanese people are reluctant to buy non-japanese products (unless some weird fad hits, but that has little to do with the gaming community).

Also, most (or all? I'm not sure on GT or Brain Training)  of those games you mentioned, aren't they Japanese-developed games?

It only matters, when PS3 will outsell x360.

We all know, that PS3 is selling better than x360 in same time frame.

AGREED

But the 360 doesn't have any BIG jrpgs. Also there is more to Japanese gaming tastes than jrpgs, platformers for example are lacking on the 360 compared to Wii or PS3.

Going through the list of rpgs ordered by highest sales in Japan in an attempt to determine the best selling rpgs in Japan. Then I shall point out which of these franchises has seen a game on the 360.

Pokemon - no

Dragon quest - no

Final Fantasy - no (not in Japan at least, and it may have some spinoffs, but no main series)

Monster Hunter - no

Yu-gi-Oh (apparently) - no

Chrono - no

Seiken Densetsu (the mana series) - no

Super mario - no

Romancing Saga - no

Kingdom Hearts - no

Arc the lad - no

Parasite eve - no

rockman (megaman) rpg - no

Xenogears - no

Tales - yes!

Tales of Vesperia is the only big game MS have had in japan in the entire history of the xbox brand. This is why the xbox 360 doesn't sell well there.

@ r505matt - yes but my point (and it's backed up by that interview) that Japanese gamers by the type of games they want, and Japanese gaming companies cater to those tastes. If western devs had half the skill that japanese devs do, and decided to make something other than generic FPS with their time, the Japanese would buy it.