I think next year we'll see NSMBWii bundled in with every unit in leu of a further price drop. Wii + Wii Sports + NSMBWii for $199 right around when Natal hits.

I agree, but they shouldn't do it as much as Sony are doing. They're way overdoing it, there's like a gazillion different bundles and SKUs out there... Keep it simple, don't confuse your buyers.

These are just retailer bundles though if i'm not mistaken. Certainly all the ones that I have seen are.  I think what has happened here is that although we never got an official retail price cut, Nintendo did pass some kind of price cut on the retailers allowing them to offer more for their ~$400. 

I have no evidence to back this up really other than the fact you seem to be getting alot more with your $400 Wii than you were a few months ago and I'm sure this isn't purely out of retailer kindness. For example JB currently has the Wii Sports Pack listed as $379.00 yet they have a pack including the system, Wii Sports, Let's Tap, Virtua Tennis 09, Cricket, NSMBWii and some kind of sports pack, all for $419. Now certainly not everything in that pack is what i'd call AAA quality but NSMBWii and VT are decent/good games, Cricket is a new release, yet you are paying only $40 more than the base model.  The retail price of Let's Tap alone is $45 and I can't imagine JB is giving the other games away for free.