im pretty sure its gonna sell between 10-12 million.

1. Look at the the PS3 attach rate from highest to lowest.

2. Increase the highest attach rate (even in bundling) with an extra 3-3.5 million PS3 or game purchases extra deriving from Europe exclusively (Remember this is general).

3. Rememeber that this game  is only releasing on the PS3 this gen.

4. Remember the economic set backs whilst looking at sales declines on GT in America and Japan.

5. Compare your expected sales to that of Forza 3 which was also expected to do outstanding numbers in the states (but didn't) on the 360. The 360 can pull off wild numbers, but it just depends on the game and America has not truly responded to Forza.

6. The final reason is that you need to remember that Europe will be the saving grace of this title. 5.5-6 million copies in europe alone and 2-3 million world wide which leads you to an 8.5-9 M sales at the most. I adjusted.

was interesting until the part where you compared forza 3 to GT5.. anyhow the prologue sold 4 million copies plus 1 million download! thats 5 million just for the damn demo! now that is better than any of your statistics, looking at the sales of prologue, id say 8-9 million is a bare minimum.

only if bundled

Don't worry about what I said about Forza. Just add 3.5 M to the sales of GT5 Prologue. Europe is the only one who is going to boost the sales of the PS3.

The bundles will be limited, they cannot sacrifice the sales all systems.

IMO, in this current generation, selling 20 mil is quite difficult for GT5.

But I do firmly believe that it will do at least do 10 mil without much trouble. And 15 mil if bundled heavily.

whats with all the huge insane predictions for game sales these days. Hell even a gaming company themselve is predicting the most sales for their series game EVER.

20 million, ha no. Lets just quickly look at older games sales

GT1 - 11 million PS
GT2 - 9 million PS
GT3 - 14 million PS2
GT4 - 10 million PS2

Not gonna predict what the sales are going to be, but 20 million is a no. But seems should be around 10 million at least.

Hmm was curious to see how many games have even sold 20 million lifetime ever. You should really look at that. Lets ignore Nintendo games, because they just dominate in sales. OK, so no games sold 20 million. Lets list top 7 games and sales. (why 7, who knows, # just popped into head so stuck with it) Just console games too, no pc, so don't say Sims or something.

1. San Andreas GTA - 18.07
2. GT3 - 14.89
3. Vice City GTA - 14.02
4. GT - 10.85
5. GT4 - 10.37
6. Halo 3 - 10.33
7. FF7 - 9.72

Well at least your lucky in that most high selling games are GT games. But 20 million? come on, you seriously expect GT5 to be the best selling game of all time and sell 2 million more than any other game, and on just one console? These are only 1 system sales too, so san andreas has more for xbox and call of duty and stuff may be on list. but still the nly like 12 million or something.

SO out of all games non nintendo only 1 game has ever topped 20 million and that is san andreas. and did it barely.


And here I thought square was making moronic predictions, but their 10 million FF13 seems plausable compared to this.  (have ot make sure to remember this thread for when the game does only 10 million, wow what a flop)

The first GT game on Console sold always way more then the second one interesting,

If you compare:

GT1: GT3

11 mio vs 14.89 Mio

GT2:GT3

9 Mio vs 10.75 Mio

GT4:prologue vs GT5:prologue

0.8 Mio vs 4.17 Mio

The GT brand has not weakened over the time. Its even stronger

GT has gained 20% from one to the other Gen. It was 20% (19.444) from GT2:Gt4 and 35% (35.3636) from GT1:GT3.

FF7>FF8 FF10>FF12

If GT5 gets the same growth it got in the PS2 times the sales numbers will be 20.1 Mio LTD if it gets the same growth as the series got from one to the other generation 28.2% then GT5 will be 19 Mio if it gets the sales growth from the GT2 to GT4 then it will be 17.97 Mio.

We can judge if GT is on a decline after we know the GT5 LTD. I guess it will stagnate at best that means it will be around 15 Million. Even if the series shrunk by 25% it will get 11 Mio sales LTD.


I am sure it will be atleast as big as GT4 was. And if you spread the sales over the next 3 years. It doesnt need a giant attach ratio to get 11-12 Mio.

The 20 Mio are unlikely but I think the Op wanted to show that 20 Mio are not completly imppssible there is still a minor chance (1%-5%) that it could reach 20 Mio. In 100 different planet earths there would be 1-5 planet earths which would have 20 Mio GT5 sales. For a possible Attach Ratio of 30% there has to be 60 Mio PS3s and thats likely.

Mario Kart has an even higher atach rate. And Mario Kart will be probably around 25 Mio in 2012.

Atleast one thing is sure that the GT5 will be the most successful PS3 game.

Directly comparing Prologues is disingenuous, if for no other reason than GT5P was the only one to get worldwide release and had much heavier bundling (it was basically free in Japan, which literally doubled it's sales there). I do agree there's some degree of "new console" appeal for initial releases each gen though, which probably did aid GT5P quite a bit.