I know.

Do you see Sony massivly bundeling GT5 ? from launch all the way past Xmas 2010.  I do what you think.

GT5 can be heavly bundled in every marklet in the world, it wont offend any one or get on any ones bad side, its just cars.  Does sony have any other game to bundle on such massvie amounts.  GT5 is their cash cow and they will milk her through bundeling. 

GTA SA did +20m on PS2/360 MW2 might do it, over multi platforms of course.

I'm not going to read all the posts, but I have to say:

HELL NO.

Are you crazy? Let me give you some good reasons quick:

As of now there are ~26m PS3's sold. Let's say (generously) that there will be 35m sold when GT5 launches, and when GT6 comes out (which Yamauchi has practcally confirmed) there will be 50m PS3's sold. I honestly can't see 20m/50m = 40% of PS3 owners picking up this game. Also, in previous gen the PS2 install base was MUCH larger so what possible reason could there be for this GT to do SO much better? GT improves every iteration. It's going to be damn impressive, but that won't make everyone buy it.

They may bundle it, but probably like Uncharted or Motorstorm in the past. The bundle will be there, but the cheaper option would be the console only for people who don't want the game. While those games got large boosts in sales, I don't expect GT5 to be exclusively bundled (as in the only way to get the system is to buy the game) which is the kind of bundling needed to reach those massive sales amounts. So if I assume GT5 managed 10m on its own, I could see maybe 4m via bundle before they drop the option. Much like Halo, Mario and Zelda, people who are fans of the series may have already bought the console trusting that the game would be good and that it would eventually come out.

Again, 20m is a huge ammount and realistically for GT5 to hit 20m units, it has to sell like Mario Kart Wii where it managed 100k/wk for the entire first year.

10 at best

maybe read them next time so you know what the hell you are talking about.  Half of your easons agianst it were taking care of in the first post of the thread.

So there are 35m PS3s when GT5 hits.  Do you think GT6 will come out a year after GT5 ? or do you think PS3 will sale 15 million in the next 2/3 years.   You lack reasoning, you just picked numbers to fit your opinion.

Here 35m PS3s when GT5 comes out, 3 years untill GT6.  Low estimate of 10m PS3s a year and you got 65m right there.  Attach rate of 30% is 19.5m.  20% is 13m.

interesting.

So bundles alone wont be enough, what about GT5 greatest hits sales ? what % of sale might be done at half price.   What would it need to do on its own to get near + bundeling. 

What about first week month sales.. id bet GT5 does bigger numebrs first week and month, all due to Europe.  Japan and NA will probably in line with MArio Kart did.  But Europe will eat up GT5 like no other game. (basing this on GT5p doing 400k in one day on like 4.6m PS3s)

GT5 should have more early sales.

And what about lack of piracy, a long term selling and popular franchise like GT must have lost some sales like that, what are realistic numbers for pirated GT3s ?

damn it why arent there weekly sales for GT3 in NA and Europe. 

How did GT3 sale 14.8 million, fornt heavy lor ong term.

I'm sure GT5 will do bigger 1st week numbers, and I'm 100% positive about that. The Wii hasn't had very many huge launches. Heck, even Halo 3 had bigger 1st week sales, but it couldn't keep up with the legs of Mario Kart Wii.

Take a look at this graph - http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Halo+3+-+X360&reg2=All&game2=Mario+Kart+Wii+-+Wii&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=84&weekly=1

In the first 10 weeks, Halo 3 sold over 1/2 of it's total sales (to date), while Mario Kart Wii was only 300k behind, but only managed to sell 3/10ths of it's total sales. Top top it off, Mario Kart had a huge boost over the 2nd Christmas season and will likely see another large one over the 3rd. GT3 was also incredibly front loaded on PS2 in Japan managing to sell ~80% of the total sales in the first 10 weeks. I would expect the legs to be a lot longer in Europe and NA though, but not nearly as long as MKWii. I don't expect GT5 to have Mario Kart type legs, but it should be able to pull much bigger numbers in the first few weeks. Obviously, how Mario Kart Wii sold has no bearing on how GT5 will sell, but saying that GT5 will reach Mario Kart Wii status on a much smaller userbase would just be beyond incredible.

As for piracy, pirates claim they wouldn't have bought the game anyways, so why would they buy GT5? Most people who pirated in the past may not even have bought a PS3. Obviously we can't know how many would purchase it, so that is all up to gestimation.

20 million mark is beyond reality... I expect between 9 and 11 million

norlead

so how possible are MW2 like first week numbers for GT5, as you say it should be able to pull much bigger first week numbers then MKwii. It did 2.3m first week and 4.4 first 4 weeks. (24m install base)

And how big would its first week/4weeks numbers have to be to make 20m a possibility through bundling and greatest hits and a expected 2/3 years before a successor is released.

great thread hus!20m no 15m yes,and i have GT3 pirate GT4 original