After 4 weeks, 5,1 millions.

LTD = about 20-25 millions.

I don't get why some people think that it will do less than 15 millions. I have even seen some people saying that it would do less than 10 millions and even less than Mario Galaxy. That would be a failure for Nintendo.

NSMBWii beating Mario Galaxy is a given, 2D is much more popular and the Wii users are much more now.

I think that the game will do like Mario Kart Wii. It's probable.

Ioi Estimated it would do around 50% more than Super Mario Galaxy in the americas these coming weeks. SMG did 1.4 million in 4 weeks. Meaning if going by his estimation we would see numbers around 1.9 million in america alone in that time. My estimation would be similar, around 2 million.

And with 550k first day in america, 1.9 million worldwide in the first 4 weeks sounds way too low.

People need to stop looking at Galaxy. Look more at New Super Mario Bros., and probaly Mario Kart DS and Wii too.

I expect 16 million minimum.

There's one thing that people seemingly do not account for: New Super Mario Bros. Wii will have a larger benefit from Black Friday than Super Mario Galaxy did.

Black Friday is far larger now than it was in 2007. Galaxy probably only saw a 50-100K boost from it, whereas New Super Mario Bros. Wii could get a far, far larger boost.

I would expect NSMB Wii to see nearly as large sales in week 2 (in Americas) as in week 1.

A higher 2nd week wouldn't surprise me honestly.  This is the game everyone's going to be buying for or with their Wii this holiday, and Black Friday is the biggest day for that.

I think that now people who predicted that the game would sell less than 15 millions and people who even predicted it to sell less than Mario Galaxy understand that they were wrong.

I love revisiting threads like these. The results so far:
 
               Japan       Americas   Others      Total
Week 1   943,582    952,279   323,419   2,219,280
Week 2   454,233    598,402   343,606   1,396,241
Week 3   549,756    372,520   369,986   1,292,262
Week 4   n/a             477,153   341,344   818,497

Total Japan - 1,947,571
Total Americas - 2,400,354
Total Others - 1,378,355

Total - 5,726,280

Will probably be at least 400k (now 500k)  more with complete Japan numbers. So a good estimate would have been 6.1 million after 4 weeks. Given that number, the predictions in order of closeness:

1) haxxiy - -0.6 million
2) Ganondorf7799 - -0.76 million
3 )Green Penguin - -1 million
3) Lucas Rio - -1 million
5) Pineapple - -1.1 million
6) Wii Master - -1.6 million
6) Puffy - -1.6 million
6) blizzid - -1.6 million
9) Buzzi - -2.02 million
10) Snake612 - -2.6 million
11) retroking1981 - -3.6 million
12) kingofwale - -4.2 million

Sorry if I missed anyone or miscalculated anything.

It's sure that however much the game sells in Japan the coming week, the order will stand, because everyone guessed below the current number VGChartz has it at after 4 weeks.

Most people were wrong mostly on Japan. It had a much, much bigger impact there than anyone had anticipated.  I think it's now safe to say the game will definitely break 10 million, and that it will outsell galaxy lifetime.

EDIT: It seems now that the game sold 500k last week in Japan.

Yes, the game perfored much better than I tought in Japan and that's mainly why I was 1,5 millions off.

The game is just selling faster than anyone could think. It will pass Galaxy very soon.

This game will do up to the same phenomenal heights as Wii Sports does ;)
Seriously, don't underestimate the Mario, he's totally back.

Hahahaha... this thread is awesome!!!

It's nice to see the game is exceeding EVERYONE'S expectancies!