Reach will not have a bigger opening than MW2, imo.

Let's get this out of the way. Never underestimate Microsoft's uncanny ability to hype something skyhigh. Halo 3 doing 3.8 million in two days on a userbase of about 11 million really shows how popular the game is in the userbase. Look at how much Modern Warfare 2 sales increased from the CoD4. Go look at the launch of Gears 2 compared to Gears 1. The launch numbers are only going to go up from Halo 3, and once Microsoft starts talking the game up, showing the game off, advertising the game, etc. I think it has a good chance at passing Modern Warfare 2.

Already Halo 3 has an attach rate of 33% (or very close to it). Factor in 7-10 million people who have rented the game, bought used games, etc, the attach rate per unique user would be closer to 60% (we know this data from Major Nelson's reports of unique users, acheivements obtained, etc.). CoD4 has a similar statistic with 12 million unique users that have played the game, and yet only 7 million in sales. This does not mean that 100% of the people who have played Halo 3 will buy Reach, but I would not be surprized that at the end if the number will be in that spectrum (50% of the Xbox community will have Halo Reach in their games played list).

Does this mean that 10 million out of the 40 million people who will have Xbox's will buy Reach in the 1st week? Probably not. BUT 3.8 million out of 11.7 million people did for Halo 3. Thus it certainly is possible (though not likely) that Reach COULD outsell MW2 on Xbox+PS3+PC.

My prediction is that the Arade will be $149, and the Elite will be $249 early next year. Xbox already has tested the market for an Elite for $249 buy offering $50 rebate soon after discounting the price of the elite to $299. This tells us that at any time if they wanted to they could discount the price by $50 without batting an eye. No reason to discount before a holiday season. Walmart and Amazon has already proved that $99 (net) Arcade consoles will fly of the shelves, so it is entirely possible to see a $129 Aracde at some point (maybe with the release of Reach and Natal) later next rear. $129 Arcade with Reach release = 10 million sales week 1.

it won't outsell it on the xbox 360 but combined with the ps3 and computer maybe it can. on the xbox 360 halo 3 is the sales king and reach will outsell modernwarfare 2 on the xbox 360.

I believe it could do more than 6 million in week1 if MS/Bungie play their cards right. The install base will be around 40 million by then, so it's only 15% attach rate.

It could happen for sure if were talking just 360 but even then they would have to hype the shit out of it.

it can put the name "Halo" on the box and it will work.

@PullusPardus

It didn't quite work with halo wars.

because its not an FPS.

Errr...just as a point of clarification...I was comparing and speaking in terms of MW2 360 and Halo Reach...I thought it was obvious what I was saying, but I'm just clearing it up. For people to say that Halo has lost it's appeal...when Halo Wars is the best RTS on ANY console, and the numbers that Halo ODST just...that's puzzling. Not to mention the fact that Halo 3 is STILL in the top 3 for XBL play?!?! Almost nobody expected MW2 to do this...so saying Halo Reach can't...after seeing these numbers is simply crazy.