With the impending results this week for Modern Warfare 2 projected to do 5.5 million on the 360 in week one, the question that immediately comes to mind is how possible/likely is it that Halo Reach will beat that number, and maybe even get to 7 million in week one?  I think Halo Reach is going to be a final massive project for the 360 by M$, launching near the end of year 6 for the console, and the install base is likely to be over 40 million by the launch of the game.  Natal will probably be causing many to re-look at the 360 as well, and Halo Reach will be the Killer App to make that push.  MW2 360 ALONE is going to blow The Dark Knight’s week one out of the water…WOW!

MW2 > Reach

I doubt Reach will be a bigger media event than MW2. But Bungie always brings the goods. Gameplay perfection is to be expected.

Thanks for the detailed analysis.

Modern Warfare 2 will probably still outsell Halo Reach for week one.

However, I think of Halo Reach gets a insane amount of hype MS will have a gold mine under them considering there are more 360 users now then there was when Halo 3 was out. Also, Halo Reach is pretty much Halo 4 in terms of content and has a new engine under their belt as well as game mechanics. I think Halo Reach is gonna sell a stupid amount of copies. However, I have to agree that Modern Warfare is pretty much the new Halo in terms of hype and sales and I think It's going to take a lot to get Halo back into the groove.

No doubt Halo: Reach will be big but I doubt it will surpass MW2 first day and/or first week sales.

I believe at the moment we have a new console shooter king.

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If Halo: Reach can be the definitive experience which brings in new players and retains the old Halo 3 userbase of people who currently and used to play that game then yes, it can be bigger than Call of Duty MW2 for the single console.

It will be difficult, how can they change the winning formula whilst still keeping the old fans happy and bring in new fans at the same time?

It all depends on the game. If the game is shown at E3 and it blows the core people away... they will go blog about it and media will cover it. And if reviews are there the game will deliver big.

Microsoft will go and market the shit out of Reach. But if they have the "must play" game of 2010 then it should do more than halo 3 easily.

I don't think it will do more than MW2. That game has the whole "realism" badassnes to it which FPS kids eat up like crack. I've had so many arguments at work which boil down to "COD is better than halo cause guns in the game are real"...you dont say 0.o

I predict about 3.5-4.5 million for Reach week 1 all proportional to how good the game is.

Think about it this way, by the time Halo Reach has been released, MW2 has been out for nearly a year, so the only competitor Reach really has for next year's holiday season is some copy and paste game Treyarch is making (COD Vietnam?).

Other than that, the only way for Halo to compete with IW's work is a true sequel to the Halo franchise.