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It all depends on the game. If the game is shown at E3 and it blows the core people away... they will go blog about it and media will cover it. And if reviews are there the game will deliver big.

Microsoft will go and market the shit out of Reach. But if they have the "must play" game of 2010 then it should do more than halo 3 easily.

I don't think it will do more than MW2. That game has the whole "realism" badassnes to it which FPS kids eat up like crack. I've had so many arguments at work which boil down to "COD is better than halo cause guns in the game are real"...you dont say 0.o

I predict about 3.5-4.5 million for Reach week 1 all proportional to how good the game is.