A long, long time ago, I predicted the 1st week sales of Call of Duty: WaW on Wii. While I was wrong on the long-term sales, I was pretty close on first week numbers. I based that prediction on first week's leaderboard numbers, and now I'm doing the same for MW Reflex.

With WaW, I used the leaderboard numbers for a full week. Now with MW Reflex, I've only used one day, but after deducing what the numbers will be on sunday, I can come up with some imaginary numbers.

For the first day, MW Reflex is doing better than WaW did. However, it must be noted that this game has been hacked by a relative large amount of people. I also think that a somewhat larger percentage of people buy this game for online relative to WaW.

First day accound numbers: about 9500. I say, 15% of those are hackers/double accounts. Some of the 9500 bought the game early. When deducing full first account numbers, I get this:

Tuesday: 8000 (US release)
Wednesday: 5250 (Most stores will carry the game by now)
Thursday: 3750 (European release)
Friday: 2000 (AU release I think)
Saturday: 3000 (more people shop on saturdays)

Total account numbers: 22000.

I'll multiply this number with a factor of 1.5, to account for the people purchasing the game, but not trying online yet.

Conclusion: first week numbers worldwide numbers will be in the 30k-40k range.

I'm lowballing this one a bit, because based on first day numbers, the game could open higher than WaW. But I don't think it will carry the same legs. What do you think?

I'll throw in another prediction: Modern Warfare Reflex will have sold 600k at the time the next Call of Duty on Wii ships.

This released today as well, right?

I should have shown up for a MW2 midnight launch looking for this, 4 da lulz.

When I picked my copy up today, the 3 people in front of me were buying MW2. I was afraid they would give me a wedgie and call me casual noob when they heard what I was buying.

The display at EB games had what looked to be a thousand copies of MW2 with posters all over the place.

COD4 for the wii had zero adds and three copies in the wii new release section. The same amount of boxes that were on display for dead space extraction.

It doesn't look too promising for the game. I'll say 10,000 first week and 500,000 lifetime.

^^ One of the reasons why I bought it from Amazon. I got it the same day and didn't have to go to a store to buy it, when everyone else is getting MW2. :s

And Chrizum, I think you should have waited until the end of the week

Most people don't even know the game exists, add on top of that it's a 2 year old port releasing the same day as the new game, I doubt it sells 20k.

UPDATE: The first week numbers of accounts are in, and it seems I underestimated the title... again.

First week account numbers were a little over 32k worldwide. I'd say, without the hackers and duplicate accounts, about 29k of those accounts were buying customers.

Let's say that at least 30% of the buyers didn't go online yet. That comes down to ~40k of first week worldwide sales.

Not bad for a 2 year old port. I'm pretty sure the game will sell between 550k - 750k in its first year.

Sounds promising. Only 30% of Wii owners didn't go online yet. I think it would be more than that. Maybe 40k first week?

For a cheap port, it doesn't need to sell much, but those sales are slightly disappointing... I think now 2m have played the PS3 game online, and I would think that a higher proportion of PS3 gamers are going to have gone online. Give ioi's expectation of 3.3m for the PS3 version, I would say that a figure of around 40% not going online on the wii would be more accurate

not bad at all. im pretty sure this title will easily hit 500k but will maybe drag its feet to a mil (if it even gets there)