vs                                   or

Which one will sell more this Holiday season?

Will MW2 on the PS3 sell more than NSMB?

Will MW2 on the BOX sell more than NSMB?

Or will NSMB sell more than either one?

Lets look at the facts.

Tips

NA Pre Order Charts week endin 11/1

MW2 BOX 1.8m

MW2 PS3 650k

NSMB 403k

End of 2007 sales

Super Mario Galaxy 4.3M with 19m userbase

MW1 BOX 3.9M with 16m userbase

MW1 PS3 1.8M with 9m userbase

MW1 1st week sales 1m on BOX

MW1 1st week sales 444k on PS3

SMG 1st week sales 1m

End of 2008 sales

WaW BOX 4.1M with 26m userbase

WaW PS3 2.3M with 18m userbase

WaW 1st week sales 1.3m on BOX

WaW 1st week sales 735k on PS3

So far sales

SMG 8.2 sold only 11k last week

MW BOX 7.8 sold 16k last week

MW PS3 4.8 sold 20k last week GOD damn I guess lots of PS3 owners gettin ready for 2

WaW BOX 5.9m sold 12k

WaW PS3 3.6m sold 13k

The Limited Bundle

The reviews

So far on the meta

NSMB has a 90 and a 70

MW2 has 2 100 scores no 70s in sight

BHR-3s final thoughts

I think that MW2 on the 360 will most cetantly sell more than NSMB b4 2010 starts and even Lifetime Im getting some feelings though about the PS3s version just looking at the preorders its already in the lead compared to NSMB.  I think MW2 on the PS3 will sell more than NSMB b4 2010 starts i mean the PS3 version should have about a 2m 1st week while i only see NSMB selling only bout 1m-1.5 1st week 

Previous Holiday Grudge match     U2 vs L4D2 results still pending

*note not all tips have been included 

Well for now definitely 360 version of MW2 over all. This thing should easily be at least 6 million by the end of the year if I had to take a guess. Lowest possible of 5 million and highest possible of 7 million.

Now second place is a little tougher but I don't think New Super Mario Bros should have too many issues beating MW2 on PS3. Mainly due to Japan. But this is of course going to depend on how big NSMB is in Japan. If it does a million by the end of the year in Japan then no biggie. At least 2-2.5 million for NSMB in America and another 1-1.5 million in Europe should put sales at about 4-5 million. I'd put PS3 MW2 sales at about 3.5-4.5 million by the end of the year.

Now of course it's still difficult to tell at this stage simply because we don't know how big of a mainstream title NSMB can be... especially in Europe. NSMB could have upwards of 2-3 million in E/O if it really does take off as the big premier title. Of course it could share it with WSR, Wii Fit Plus, and Mario and Sonic. In America, it will definitely be the big title and could potentially push it over 3 million as well.

But I still think the deciding point comes to Japan. Wii games have struggled in Japan all year, aside from MH3. If it is big in Japan, then NSMB will beat MW2 on PS3 no doubt and at least give it a good run on the 360 version.


But for now, I'm sticking with this order:

1. MW2 360
2. NSMB
3. MW2 PS3

But there are always many surprises to come so let's just wait and see.

NSMBWii has a 96 aswell.

Core gamers pre-order. Rest of world buys when the see commercials.

This really is no contest individually. NSMB will easily outsell MW2 individually on any other platform. The real grudge match will be if it can outsell MW2 on PS360 combined.

1. MW2 360
2. NSMB
3. MW2 PS3

Just not enough time for NSMB to catch up with MW2 for 360 in the little space of the holiday...

going by the news ps3 did bout 2.2m 1st day i dont know how nsmb will be ale to outsell mw2 on the ps3 b4 09 ends as i stated in my op mw2 will sell more than nsmb will b4 09 ends and it starting to look like life time aswell

guess i called another 1

After seeing this

I hope Reggie didn't put a lot in his bet

Damn, MW2 will fly through everything and everyone this holidays, and even if lifetime NSMBWii somewhat equal the DS version numbers it will still be behind if you put together all three MW2 versions.

Indeed, Modern Warfare is the new GTA.

For once even BHR lowballs a PS3 sales number coming up >1 million short by early predictions. I think that must almost be a first. But given this is a MW2 vs NSMB Wii thread BHR's underestimate means his prediction about PS3 MW2 vs NSMB WIi 2009 is more likely to come true than people may have first thought.

As I can't fathom the amount of love there is for Mario in gamerland I find it very hard to make predictions about Mario Games. It will be a massive success on Wii for sure and that's about as far as I can go. It could be an interesting race for NSMB vs MW2 PS360 Ltd. I think gaming wars are even more of a marathon than a sprint than the console war, and so I'm not all that excited by pre 2010 matchups. NSMB may well not beat either PS3 or 360 in 2009, but individuallly it should eventually outsell them both. And it's the total lifetime sales that matter in the end.

Lifetime, NSMB Wii over MW2 combined sales, by end of January, NSMB will probably be over the PS3 version WW, and maybe even the 360 version WW, as MW2 will not sell much in Japan, in America alone, MW2 on the 360 will probably be ahead of NSMB Wii by end of January