It's easy to look at a list and say "this is going to be hard to do". But consider the massive install base for Wii which should be at least 60 million by the end of the year.

I think it's really going to come down to legs with this game. If it has the legs of Mario Kart Wii, 11 million will be no problem (it will probably be more). However if sales taper off it will probably sell more along the lines of Super Smash Bros Brawl or Super Mario Galaxy.

Having long legs will depend on if this game can hit the mainstream/non-gamer ends of the market. My gut tells me it will, but I sort of shudder when I hear about the game being "harder than contra". It's good for core gamers, but I wonder how the mainstream audience will react to it.

Another very important factor is Japan. This was a huge factor in the success of NSMB DS. It sold 6 million over there. If they do the same with the Wii version, consider 11 million reached.

It has a pretty good chance of hitting 11 million first year and will no doubt sell 11 million LTD.

Mario Kart Wii sold 15 milllion worldwide in less than a year... and you don't think that a multiplayer sequel to the classic namesake of which that game was based on won't even do at least 11 million, let alone BREAK MK Wii's first year worldwide sales?!?

angrypoolman... you better stop huffing all that chlorine and shock!

Very funny thread.

About the sales of NSMBWii, I have no freaking idea.

If single player is great, it'll sell way more then if they depended on multiplayer as the selling point.

look at the sells of mario kario wii compared to it's ds brother.

this game could easely do the same thing.

did you not read the original post? nsmb ds did not reach 15 million in less than a year. that is a rediculous statement.

mario kart ds didn't sell 15 million in less than a year either, your point?

Mario Kart DS sold less than New SUper mario DS, nuff said
also,its a 2d mario platformer, a game everybody slightly interested in games is familiar with.

i dare you to click this link and look for MK Wii.

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly.php?date=39908&console=&maker=&boxartz=1#