it will depend on the software available for it. It needs a AAA game for it to really be succesful. If it has some good software we may well see good sales for natal and higher weekly sales for the 360. Like i said it all depends on the software that comes with it.

Well MS said the 360 isn't even halfway done. I'm not quite sure if I buy that. But financially they're better off continuing 360 support. I mean sales are doing great, Live is extremely profitable, and they probably make money from each console sold. Launching a new console is unnecessary with Sony still reeling from the PS3.

Edit: I presume Sony will still be struggling financailly in 2012.

It won't, Microsoft is too afraid to risk abandoning its current userbase, and they would surely feel abandoned if xSports would be the main Natal software. They wouldn't upgrade to it, and Natal would have a too small userbase to be a viable platform.

They will make sure that Natal is appealing to Teh Corez first, and maybe try to expand the audience a bit, but only later. 

Just because of E3 2009, if it doesn't sell over 20 million 360s in one day it's a failure.

Well I'm saying it needs to be bundled with something. Most accessories are typically bundled with some software. A type of WiiSports collection seems like the logical way to go. Bear in mind the Natal is intended to appeal to casual gamers.

depends on cost.
I'll definitely buy it first day if it's around $50. It'll be huge
Around $100 - maybe
over $100, I'll wait.

Natal could have it's uses even with hardcore gamers yet just as the PS eye it need sell more than to the hardcore. For example ,head tracking for games like Forza 3 ( I've got used to Track IR with PC racers) also the voice recognition could be useful in given simple commands to your troops in a FPS. If GT5 really has head tracking then I will buy PS eye just for this game while most casual gamers would pass.

 I agree I don't think too many hardcore gamers will play  3-d "wack a mole" type games. These may appeal to more casual gamers though.

It will be a success.

They would need to do a lot to screw it up.

Natal supposedly will come with every new 360 sold, so I don't see how it will not be a pretty big success. Microsoft will have to increase the media love for it. And knowing Microsoft they will have huge press kits go out so I don't see that as a big problem. Oh yea for those of us that don't buy new keep the damnd thing under $100!!

I think it will be a huge hit to newcomers and those of us with older consoles. It will probably extend the life of the 360 for a couple years and enable Microsoft to actually turn a profit overall in its gaming division (recouping most of its earlier loss). Not to mention using its tech to leap start into the next box.

Of course this is with the intentions of it having good software out of the box. As an add on it will have to come packed with some type of wii sports knock off with updated graphics. It should be intigrated with being able to control every aspect of your 360. Who doesn't want to use their force powers to start a dvd and fast forward, rewind, pause, slow motion and stop it with hand gestures? :P

I don't think Natal will prevent the ps3 from overtaking the 360.

It won't be a silver bullet. It may be a smaller success.