We know that A & B are completely untrue. That leaves C...

My point was to make a prediction thread, not argue what has already happened. You basically predicted that you don't expect 360 sales to last, I have no problem with that. Isn't that the entire point of this thread?

PS. Sorry for quoting you and starting a mini-rant about earlier Halo predictions. That was not my intention.

It seems to me that the 360 will definitely sell extremely well until the new year and then settle at lower sales than now but higher than what we saw for most of this year. Perhaps the weight of quality software is beginning to influence consumers which can only be a good thing.

I also think that the system will see a fairly big increase when GTAIV hits in April, regardless of it being a multi-platform release.

How about option D: Not everybody who likes Halo has bought a 360, and some of them never will.

  The Halo surge is certainly longer and stronger than just about anybody could have guessed. It looks like it will carry right on into holiday season. As if it wasn't enough of a massive success already, there are going to be a lot of little spawnlings who find an Xbox under the tree, I think.

Either way, the 360 is definitely doing well in the US. Healthy numbers, Halo's success, big third party support, great software sales. That still doesn't mean it's the way to go for each and every single gamer - it's lineup still is very shooter-heavy - but it will definitely sell well for some time.

The Wii should be facing some very strong months, as well, after what I would call a software drought. So yeah, I agree: It's gonna be close this holidays.

Just as said, Halo 3 have had bigger effect, than anyone expected. Including me. But i think you should notice, that there's a lot more that have happened with 360, than just Halo 3. Things that have had the most effect, are IMO: pricecut, Elite, Arcade, Bioshock and Halo 3. These will carry 360 through the christmas period with extremely strong sales, but i think it will decline after christmas, until something new comes. Maybe it will be pricecut or GTA4 or HD-DVD SKU, and i can't say anything about how strong the effect will be, but next year will be pretty quiet until something "big" happens.

Ah, had me confused there.

By now the sales certainly look more like a trend than a spike. Theorizing:

Software sales should be an indicator for what people are playing. Considering that the 360 has had about 50% software market share (counting wii/ps2/ps3/360) the last 2 month this should mean that the 360 has been generating more word of mouth and try-before-buy opportunities than the other consoles, and this may be contributing to the sales trend.

I agree. I think the 360 has really hit a corner.

I think Halo 3 was a big part of it... but not in the "Get all the old Halo Fans" way.

But in the convincing a lot of people who can only afford one console and had the hearts set on the PS3 to jump ship. I think a lot of people who want Hi-Def gaming are really reacting to all the PS3 negative press and just confusing price point confusion of the PS3 with all the models being discontinued and recontinued.

I think due to the Playstation brand weakening the Xbox brand value has actually grown. (Yes despite RROD.)

As such I actually think after everything dies down it'll still be doing better then it was placed at earlier.

Slightly off-topic: There's absolutely NO way that Nintendo isn't increasing Wii supply substantially this holiday.

Reggie has said Wii supply would be unprecedented, and at the conference where SSBB's delay was announced, they said supply would be about twice as last holiday's. Besides, their sales forecasts for the fiscal year can only be attained if supply increases substantially, and Nintendo wouldn't do such forecasts if they don't have the manufacturing capacity for them.

Hopefully, they'll double supply worldwide, my estimates are based on that and I'm going to pick up 2 Wiis soon...

On-topic:

Yes, I was also surprised by 360's apparent momentum, and I think we won't see sales going much below current levels until at least the end of the year. Holidays are around the corner, so there's just a few weeks during which 360's sales can go down now.

Sony now has a very high probability (at the very least 95% I feel) of being 3rd during the holiday season, and by a wide margin. In USA, they'll be killed by 360+Wii, in Japan and in Europe they'll be killed by the Wii (in Europe as a whole, possibly by the 360 also). It truly looks like the PS3 is between the rock called Wii and the hard place called Xbox 360.

It was only a matter of time. They have alot of high rated games since august along with the price cut along with the arcade and two free games bundle it should last quite a bit. Mainly though is the games that are leading the way on top of the highly rated games is the diversity of games which will continue to expand this holiday. The 360 has turned the corner in NA.