regardless of that, you're prediction is very optimistic... and the ps2 will reach 140 at some time.. the ps1 sold 100 and if the ps3 can do 60, 300 mil will be reached. You expect the wii to sell 200++ mill in 5 years, while its impossible for the ps3 to sell 30 mill in the same timeframe, really=?

I can't see PS1+2+3 passing 300m given the current trajectories. Then again I can't see Wii doing it either, I think it'll top out around half that at best.

It's okay, i will add this to the list of crow you have to eat

But you say its unlikely for PS3 to do an extra 38 Million... yet you expect Wii to do another 200+ Million? Lol...

The FFX boost is the mountain on the left, I stretched the graph to the holidays for a comparison. Basically, PS2 had massive holiday sales (far beyond the FF bump), and that had little to do with FFX. The game only sold 25k between November & December.

On the other hand, take a game like Mario Kart Wii. Its first 5 weeks saw ~1.2mil, and its December sales alone last year were 240k.

Basically, people aren't buying consoles in the holidays for games like Final Fantasy. The effect it would have when released wouldn't be much different than releasing in a slower period. If the boost is ~200k, just add that to what the PS3 would normally sell. So, if it has a 50% boost from last year, it'd do ~720k from now until the end of the year. That's about what I'm predicting.

Remember, the sales it's doing now don't necessarily reflect how it'll look in the holidays. The less popular console always gets a smaller holiday boost, even when it's doing about as well as the lead console, as late as November(!!). See X360 (exaggerated), PS3, PSP.

The winning console always takes December by a long shot. The only exception I've been able to find is the Saturn vs PS of 95 - this was before the PS had any games (not to mention it was the Saturn's second holiday vs PS' first). Besides that, the closest I've been able to find is the N64 v PS of 98 (this one is interesting, got pretty close), and PSP v DS of 07 (DS still sold over 50% more than PSP in December).

1995 was the second holiday for both PS1 and Saturn, both launched in 1994. Saturn led PS1 until the FFVII announcement in early 1996 though, and during the holidays of 95 it got it's best selling game ever (Virtua Fighter 2).

Okees, thanks for the info (edited). I probably should have re-checked the launch, 94 just seems too early.

I don't know too much about the Saturn / Japan, it's been kind of a mystery to me.

Saturn was the early favorite thanks to Sega's more popular arcade conversions, but both were expected to get crushed by U64 in late 95.  The N64 delay and Sony's Square coup pretty much led to a complete reversal, that resulted in an overnight 3rd party exodus from Nintendo to PlayStation.

Even still, Saturn did respectably and got decent 3rd party support (in Japan, elsewhere it was a nightmare).  It felt a lot like how PC Engine went in Japan, strong second place, unique RPGs, heavy arcade port focus/fanbase, more "hardcore" than the mainstream SFC/PS1.