Avinash_Tyagi said:
That's not FFX's boost, FFX was out in July in Japan in 2001 |
The FFX boost is the mountain on the left, I stretched the graph to the holidays for a comparison. Basically, PS2 had massive holiday sales (far beyond the FF bump), and that had little to do with FFX. The game only sold 25k between November & December.
On the other hand, take a game like Mario Kart Wii. Its first 5 weeks saw ~1.2mil, and its December sales alone last year were 240k.
Basically, people aren't buying consoles in the holidays for games like Final Fantasy. The effect it would have when released wouldn't be much different than releasing in a slower period. If the boost is ~200k, just add that to what the PS3 would normally sell. So, if it has a 50% boost from last year, it'd do ~720k from now until the end of the year. That's about what I'm predicting.
Remember, the sales it's doing now don't necessarily reflect how it'll look in the holidays. The less popular console always gets a smaller holiday boost, even when it's doing about as well as the lead console, as late as November(!!). See X360 (exaggerated), PS3, PSP.
The winning console always takes December by a long shot. The only exception I've been able to find is the Saturn vs PS of 95 - this was before the PS had any games (not to mention it was the Saturn's second holiday vs PS' first). Besides that, the closest I've been able to find is the N64 v PS of 98 (this one is interesting, got pretty close), and PSP v DS of 07 (DS still sold over 50% more than PSP in December).
