So the PS3 effectively has to sell 2.7million more in 6 months than it did last year. Works out at about 100 thousand a week on average more than last year. I think with the lineup it should comfortably do this. Final Fantasy alone will sell 100's of thousands. Gran Turismo, God of war in March also.

If Sony managed to sell 4.5m in Q3 last year when the price was $100 more in NA and £50 more in UK and similarly worldwide, then I can see them selling at least another 50% more...I wouldn't be surprised if they sell 7-8m in the same quarter this year and Q4 will be more productive with quite a few big hitting exclusives like GOW3, GT5 and Heavy Rain amongst others...there was only Killzone 2 for last years, so maybe anywhere from 2-3m.

So 10.1m last year (1.6 + 2.4 + 4.5 + 1.6)

and I reckon somewhere between 13.3 and 15.3

I think it is possible. PS3 for sure will at least sell 50-75% more than last year holiday. 4.3 + 6.5 million + 2.2 million. FFXIII, GOW3 and GT5 will move HW a lot.

Will probably end up more than 12m, but not sure about 13m.

Q1 2010 (or Q4 in Sony's fiscal) is looking really good right now for all consoles.

Gran Turismo 5 will hardly be out in March.

I think is quite reachable.With the price cut and the success of U2, ps3 will see a 35% increase at least which will make it sell 6M in the holiday season. With GT5 and GOW3, ps3 will make another 2.2M in Q4. so I think the ps3 can sell 12.5M-13M

My expectation is 7 million for the next quarter and then 2 million for the next.

I think the PS3 target is pretty good... they should easily make 12 million, 13 million can be done with a little extra shipping or indeed what they did last year, which was to somehow re-organise the way they counted the shipments that meant they took some from the previous year (I have no idea why it's allowable unless it was a proven mistake from the previous year... but that should have been corrected earlier)

Anyhow, the PSP target is the one they should be worrying about.... 15 million is really high, I guess they thought the PSPGo would do better.

Well we know Nintendo revised their forecasts but Sony, as far as I know, did no such thing. There the best equipped to make these predictions and they are sticking to it. This leads me to believe that there is indeed a strong chance Sony will pull it off.

However... I'm curious as to whether they overshipped the Slim in September which would then impede on their Q3 (holiday) shipments. I never heard of Slim's out of stock and Sony sold a whole bunch at first (and still selling well today). This is my only reservation on the shipping numbers increasing drastically this holdiay (though the Slim will certainly sell a lot more to the consumer this holiday).

@lazyrider

slims were out of stock on amazon, gamesptop & so on initially