LAST YEAR:

(Q1) 1.6 Million + (Q2) 2.4 Million = 4 Million

In THAT year the following two quarters were like this:

4.5 Million (Q3 = Holiday one) then 1.6 Million (Q4)......this led to a TOTAL of 10.1 Million

So far SONY has shipped this year:

(Q1) 1.1 Million + (Q2) 3.2 Million = 4.3 MILLION

So is 13 MILLION possible keeping in mind FF13, GT5 (most likely) & GOW3 will release by march 2010?

It will be very hard, I think 11-12 sounds more reasonable.

4.3 M + 5 M (season holiday) + 2 M last Q=11.3 Million is my expectation

@fxa

rememebr this holiday should be MUCH better than last years one

@ Darth: I don't KNOW, MAYBE...

@ fxa: not saying it'll definitely work, but only 500k more even with this price cut and re-design? (okay, crisis counterbalances but still).

Personally I think they've got it. Look at the upswing between Q1 and Q2 this year. Is that really going to change with the big releases already mentioned?

I think they will at least be very close to 13 million. After the slim/price cut, Q2 this year is way up from Q2 last year, and I think both Q3 and Q4 will be up substantially over last year as well. With at least 1 million more in Q3 this year than last year, and with a strong line up I think Q4 will probably be up ~500k over last year as well.

Considering 2 million of those consoles were shipped in september

Yes i think it should be pretty easily achieveable..
optimistic:
4.3M + 7M + 2.5M = 13.8M (we have GT5 in 4th Q n also GOWIII in 4th Q, n also MAG, SO4 n many other smaller exclusive releases).

Pessimistic
4.3 + 6.2M + 2M = 12.5M
So i believe it should be achieveable easily..

@papflesje

what do you mean maybe? its a certainty imo

with FF13 in Japan

6-6.5M is possible in Q3 then with GT5 and Gow III 2-2.5M is possible in Q4 so 13M is doable.