Joelcool7 said:
Alright I'll start the 2011 argument! Using your quotes! A) The Nintendo Wii launched in the fall of 2006, a five year life cycle would mean the next Nintendo platform is set to launch in fall 2011. Now you say it is the best selling console. That is true to a degree but Sony just overtook it in the monthly charts proving that even Nintendo isn't out of reach of the competition. Also in many other markets (movies/television/music) the best time to cancell a product and release a new one is at the hieght of that products life. Take Friends for example they cancelled the series at the peak when people said it was doing the best it had ever done. It makes sense for Nintendo to capitalize on its success buy releasing another platform right before sales begin to drop. lets face it the Wii has started to slump (Sales Wise) a price cut and new titles like NewSuperMarioBros couldn't even keep it above Sony. B) Natal and Sony's wand. Think about this for a second Sony launches its wand next spring, if they cut their consoles price again to say 199.99$ like Nintendo they will be able to obliterate any chance of Nintendo making a recovery. Natal and the Wand both promise to revolutionalize game play on their respective platforms. This will make the consoles more casual and target Nintendo's market share directly. Nintendo will need something new to fend off the competition and I suspect if hardware sales continue to slump and Nintendo continues to loose marketshare then 2011 is more then a reasonable date for Nintendo's next platform! C) Big library of hits. I sure hope your refering to WiiPlay/WiiFitPlus and WiiSports when your talking about library. Because to be honest Nintendo's hardcore franchises aren't fairing all that better then the competitions. I mean Uncharted managed to ship almost a million copies right out of the gate and thats on a platform with less then half the sales. Take for example Mario Galaxy it still got whipped by Halo3. Then when you talk about third party competition you see that hardcore titles like the Conduit barely sell at all. Word of mouth is only reaching soccer moms who pick up WiiFit! D) your absolutely right WiiMotionPlus would be great for Legend Of Zelda. However I'm pretty sure Wii2's controller will have WiiMotionPlus built in and play almost identicle to Sony's wand. It would make alot of sense to launch the next generation with a Zelda title. Of course on the flipside it could be used to prolong Wii's sales in the face of a new platform.
Obviously you can see I expect WiiHD to launch in the fall of 2011, 2012 at absolute latest! |
Sorry, I don't have much time right now for a proper answer, but
A) PS3 Price cut, I'm sure Wii will soon get it's position back. And this is not a TV series. You buy a console and when another one is launched, you either buy a new console or keep playing the old one, wich won't be getting new games, it's a lot different. Also, there are early costs involving technology (even if not as big for Nintendo this gen) to be amortized and the cost and time needed for developing the other generation's hardware. Also, Wii actually got back on it's feet with the price cut, the lineup might propel it nicely, compare it to PS2 curve, I don't think Wii will fall so short as to not be a good idea to keep it until 2012. They can still further cut the price, are yet to introduce players choice, etc.
B) They may get hardware, but I don't think they'll have the software to eat on "Nintendo's market" that much. They might have, but most likely won't, so I don't think it'll be that relevant.
C) I mean big library of hits. Period :P
2010 is getting strong support and 2011 should too. Wathever kind of gamer you are, there will be plenty of great games. Add a players choice line and a further cut in the console price, and the Wii package will have just too much value to be ignored. You may argue the competition could do that too. well, maybe not as much, but sure they could. It still doesn't really matter, the value itself will be enough to sell to anyone who's into games or any casual, expect bundles if needed, too.
D) Will be great :P. It's kind of confirmed, isn't it?
But the point is, Wii would go it's entire cycle without a proper Zelda for it. I don't think it's gonna happen, really. When they announced Twilight Princess it did take long for it to be realeased and if you expect the same kind of delay between first trailer and release, then it wouldn't be on Wii, sure. But Nintendo's announcing thing a lot closer to realease these days, just look at NSMB Wii. There's no reason to think this Zelda would take as long. A killer Zelda at late-but-not-so-late Wii life is perfect to keep it going and catch all the rest of the "core" who don't yet won a Wii (specially combined with Metri other M and things like that, and in the event of another price cut later on). Having Zelda on launch is great, but everyone who cares all that much about Zelda knows there'll be a Zelda just as much as there'll be a Mario.
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