| dunno001 said: A) The Nintendo Wii launched in the fall of 2006, a five year life cycle would mean the next Nintendo platform is set to launch in fall 2011. Now you say it is the best selling console. That is true to a degree but Sony just overtook it in the monthly charts proving that even Nintendo isn't out of reach of the competition. Also in many other markets (movies/television/music) the best time to cancell a product and release a new one is at the hieght of that products life. Take Friends for example they cancelled the series at the peak when people said it was doing the best it had ever done. It makes sense for Nintendo to capitalize on its success buy releasing another platform right before sales begin to drop. lets face it the Wii has started to slump (Sales Wise) a price cut and new titles like NewSuperMarioBros couldn't even keep it above Sony. First of all, I don't see the 5 year cycle being an absolute. All 3 of the companies have stated that this will be a longer generation than the prior ones. I don't think any of them are in a rush to get their next system out right now; Sony would have too much to lose (face of the 10-year plan, nowhere near break-even on PS3), Microsoft is planning a 360 relaunch with Natal, and Nintendo has their most successful console ever, and won't want to kill the momentum. As for Sony overtaking Nintendo, yeah, that was for 1 month, and only barely. How many months would it take at that rate to catch up? (Hint- at 25,000 a month, it's about 100 years.) And the more recent weeks have Nintendo back ahead of Sony. And titles like NSMBWii not helping? Well, given that it's not out yet, I don't think it has had much of a chance to help yet! B) Natal and Sony's wand. Think about this for a second Sony launches its wand next spring, if they cut their consoles price again to say 199.99$ like Nintendo they will be able to obliterate any chance of Nintendo making a recovery. Natal and the Wand both promise to revolutionalize game play on their respective platforms. This will make the consoles more casual and target Nintendo's market share directly. Nintendo will need something new to fend off the competition and I suspect if hardware sales continue to slump and Nintendo continues to loose marketshare then 2011 is more then a reasonable date for Nintendo's next platform! Well, first of all, you make the assumption that Nintendo will not do anything. That's foolish. And I don't see Sony being able to afford yet another $100 price drop that soon. Yes, Sony has forecast a large net loss for the year, and I think this past price cut was a large part of it. Try explaining to your stockholders that in order to remain relevant, you have to keep taking bigger and bigger losses. Oh yeah, and that price doesn't include the wands, that'll cost more. And as it is not packed in with the system, history shows that support for it will be minimal. (Going back to the NES shows more failed accessories than I care to count. I'm truthfully surprised at the success of the Wii Balance Board.) Not to mention that all the games that people are buying the Wii for are still there. As for Microsoft, in theory, they could try to undercut Nintendo's market, but their goal seems to be more squashing Sony. Should MS succeed there, they know that the market can easily support 2 home consoles. This is the first generation in which 3 have really been supported well, and bringing it back to 2 reduces the ways that your income is split up. But even still, MS also has shareholders to answer to. As they're finally showing yearly profit, I think they'd like to keep things that way. I do see a 360/Natal set at near or just below cost, but that won't be $200. I predict a natal 360 with HDD for $299.99 when it releases. C) Big library of hits. I sure hope your refering to WiiPlay/WiiFitPlus and WiiSports when your talking about library. Because to be honest Nintendo's hardcore franchises aren't fairing all that better then the competitions. I mean Uncharted managed to ship almost a million copies right out of the gate and thats on a platform with less then half the sales. Take for example Mario Galaxy it still got whipped by Halo3. Then when you talk about third party competition you see that hardcore titles like the Conduit barely sell at all. Word of mouth is only reaching soccer moms who pick up WiiFit! Hmm... well, using VGChartz data, there are 111 games that have broken 5,000,000. (multi-million sellers) 10 are Wii, 1 is PS3, and 6 are 360. If you just want 1 million as your plateau, yes, the 360 has 71 over it versus the Wii's 58. Given the extra year of the 360 in the marketplace, there are still more titles on average breaking 1 million on the Wii yearly than the 360. I'd say that games are fairing just as well on the Wii. Oh, and yes, Galaxy is losing in sales to Halo 3. However, it's kinda sad when you need to use the best selling 360 game versus the 6th best selling one on Wii. But I will also mention that Halo 3 is the ONLY 360 game to outsell Galaxy. |
this post is the best i have ever seen on vgchartz..hell i don't see one thnig i can disagree with....i like that abt the fact that u brought up that only halo 3 managed to ut sell wii galaxy whch is not even its best selling.....
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