just to get some people thinking
the Xenos in the xbox 360 has a pixel fill rate of 4 Gigapixel per second
the HD 5870 has a pixel fill rate of 27.2 Gigapixel per second
and the 5850 has 23.2 Gp/s

Unfortunately for Sony, I don't think they'll have a choice BUT to sit next gen out what with the money theyve lost and the decline of the prestige of the PS brand relative to XBox and Wii. If anything, they'll have to release a new console well (like halfway, at least) into the next generation.

pterodactyl... unfortunatly? what you said has been their plan the whole time... you guys need to make up your damn mind. Will Sonys 10 year plan hold up or will the be forced to launch a new system early. Whatever paints Sony in a bad light the time of the conversation is what you trolls go with at the time

Totally disagree with the OP. Reasons:

Blu-ray: the OP mentions that Blu-ray was a weakness for the PS3, driving up the costs and whatnot. I totally agree with that, but the OP is overlooking the fact that a blu-ray drive will be a significantly cheaper by 2013 than it is now or especially when the PS3 first came out. So, this won't be as much of a weakness. Actually, the 720 will probably have a Blu-ray drive, so it would have the same weakness, to doubly invalidate the reasoning given.

The PS4 is going to have the following advantages assuming that it does come out:

BC- The PS3 didnt have backward compatibility but the PS4 will, giving consumers more options to buy games which will increase SW revenue to some degree. This will be an advantage that the PS3 did NOT have.

Royalties: Sony will get royalties from MS if the 720 does have a Blu-ray drive, because the games would probably be Bluray based. Still, Sony won't get a whole lot, the last i've seen is that Sony would be getting 9 cents per title sold, still it definitely will help. This will be an advantage that the PS3 did NOT have.

Development:  The Ps4 will probably have a CPU based on the Cell, which has been broadly agreed up though not certain I will admit.  If so, then that is great for developers as they will have the expertise already in place to make games without the hassle that they had for the PS3 generation.  This is an advantage (over the PS3) that the PS3 did NOT have.

Online parity with Microsoft- lately sony has improved the PSN by a lot and while they have a bit more to go, things are looking almost equal by now. Sony continues to improve things and make the whole online thing another source of revenue. Going into the PS4 era, Sony will have to offer applications that will fit the PS4, but in doing so, it won't have to build from the ground up. This will be an advantage (over the PS3) that the PS3 did NOT have.

If the PS4 would have corrected its weaknesses, and have the 720 adopt more expensive BD drive, why would the PS4 be so disadvantaged going into the next gen?  Brilliant.

Toyota can stop selling cars in america for a few years and then get back into the g ame with this kind of reasoning.  If it makes things harder for them, who cares? 

Sony had to react. The Dreamcast was a good Console and it was Certainly stronger then the Saturn. ( Not Sales wise but the potential of it especially in the West compared to Saturn)

Sony HAD to react. if they would have released the PS2 1 or even 2 years later. The people have become sick of waiting and bought a DC. I bought one on the beginning my first Sega Console because it was good. And it was far more popular then Saturn. But everyone was waiting for PS2 because the PS1 has dominated the market as never seen before. And the PS1 made the adults play games which was also never done before. Thats why the newly found gamer waited eagerly for PS2 but they wouldnt wait forever.

18 months later the people would have went all to DC. It got enough Games and it had a appeal that the Saturn had not.

Not counting the DC is just ignoring the Facts. It was the last Shot of Sega but thats not a reason not to count Sega.

And I swear the WII will have a successor before Sony. That dont means that the WII will be discountinued. The Wii proofed that a Console with extremly inferior graphics can be first. The WII HD will be just an attack to the Hardcore market. The WII will stay in the game as long as its possible.

The market has changed with the Wii infact Sony and MS are not forced to release another Console before Nintendo does it. The question is WHY SHOULD THEY.

What could a new Console offer except from better Graphics. Nothing ! And the better Graphics of PS3 and Xbox 360 could not stop the Wii.

Sony has just to react to Microsoft. And I doubt that Wii HD will be much more powerful then the PS3 because Nintendo learned a lesson. To be successful you dont have to have the strongest Hardware.

MS and Sony will release a Console if the oppenent released one. Nintendos market cant be conquered with Graphics just the traditional market reacts to Graphics.

Nintendo has a monopoly in their market there is noone who could provide you with the Nintendo Experience.

As long as the Wii dont show weakness (what it already has, we will see it after Holidays)
they dont have to release a Console. If the WII sales really declined significantly this year we can say for sure there will be a WII HD in 2011-2012.

And Sony will react if MS made another XBOX.

The Consoles wont be 10times more powerful then the Precedessors. They will evolve slightly. And the Life Cycles will be longer from now on until the day the Lifecycles will be forever because the improve of the Power of a Console wont result in better Graphics. Wii HD will live longer then WII and the PS4 Xbox720 will both play the major role 10 years atleast.


Infact the PS3 can stay long on the market and aslong as MS dont release a Console Nintendo will be the first one.

@riecsou

You said right now HD DVD cant compete with Bluray. Infact HD DVD has died long ago.
But I think you have a misconception in your thoughts.

You think that Bluray equals Graphical Quality and as long as a Competitor comes up with a "better" format then Bluray. Sony cant be topped graphically.

But the problem is Bluray has not much to do with the Graphics of a Videogame. Its just more storage this CAN be better for graphics and is good for HD Movies but infact you can make Games on DVD with much better Graphic then on Bluray. Bluray is just the storage device.

So MS dont need to match Bluray to be better graphically then Sony they just need to make a stronger Hardware. And Sony has no monopoly to Bluray Nintendo and MS can use it too if they want. And they will use it for sure MS sure with the Xbox 720 Nintendo maybe with WII HD (2)

@Netyaroze good post but I think that the next gen will be about 10x more powerful especially as they wont be out until 2011-2012 at the earliest (2010 is possible especially for Nintendo but unlikely) and graphics processor are already almost 10x more powerful just look at the 360s xenos at 240 GFLOPS vs the Radeon HD 5870 and HD 5850s 2720 and 2088 respectively.

by 2012 it will be closer to 15x more powerful and even today's chips would make a noticeable difference for Microsoft especially as they will be able to implement DX11 level effects and framework + deliver 1080p with 4x AA instead of sub 720p with 4x AA

I would love to see that the next gen will be 10x more powerful. That would be great but after Nintendos WII I am afraid that MS or Sony could do the same thing with PS4 or Xbox 720.

I didnt realize that the new Gpus are almost 10times as powerful. Hopefully they will make some games which make actually use of that.

yea it would be possible but if they do nintendo might go for one that powerful and then how would they look lol.

as for games using the power the only game I see really doing that is Crysis 2

oh the untamed north... God Of War 3 multiplat confirmed??