Avinash_Tyagi said: 68soul said: I think this generation will last longer than the previous ones... PS3 and X360 will soon have new motion controls: Sony and Microsoft just can't end this generation right after the launch of their new toys, the consumer would feel confused, if not abused... The HD tech is already impressive enough for most games possible, and game's budgets are already really high: higher would be too risky for most teams out there... never forget a good game takes time: 2 years is a minimum, and i don't think most devs want to already develop games for the next gen, with brand new tools to master, rising costs, small initial userbase, etc... once again, too many risks, while profits are finally secured this gen... The only company needing something new on the market will be Nintendo, for all the reasons we all know by now... the so-called "Wii HD" will maybe come sooner than the other "next-gens", if Nintendo want to have the same 3rd party library as PS360, and really be the market leader this time, for all types of games, even the most "hardcore" and all the "graphic beasts"... But anyway, i think Nintendo will first release a handheld update, as DS will soon be 6 years old... with the brand new DSi on the market, it won't happen tomorrow anyway, as once again, the consumer would feel "abused" if a new console was realeased before 2011... I only have Wii and DS, but i know i don't want to spend more money on hardware right now, as both consoles have many great games announced for 2010... for me, the Wii's even gonna have its best year so far, with at least 10 excellent and "big budget" titles already in the want lists of many... and many "yet to announce" projects we still know nothing about... 2011 and 2012 will logically follow that trend on Wii, the current market leader after all, even if 2013 (or holidays 2012) will be the year for Nintendo's next home console... So no twilight, but quite the exact opposite: many good games to come for all the consoles out there, which is great for everyone... we never had so many choices: all the past classics are easily available, the digital distribution is gaining momentum, and the number of excelllent games released each year is absolutely stunning, in any of the "genres" or "styles" each of us could like... in the end, i think this generation will be remembered as the best ever... PS3 and 360 motion controls wont succeed, Sony and MS will be forced to launch new consoles. Why does nintendo need anything new, sales show that it doesn't people prefer Wii over PS3 and 360, even now, Wii HD isn't needed, because consumers don't care Nintendo doesn't need the 3rd party library of the PS3 and 360, in fact its games outsell third party titles

 

Because sales were down 30% YoY before the cut and even after the cut 2009 fiscal sales will be lower than 2008 fiscal ( a thing about unheard of for a console that had a cut the majority of the year).

And because profit will be down 30% or so...

It's release something new and watch profit go down again in 2010 fiscal and watch the stock keep going down...

 

yushire said: 68soul said: I think this generation will last longer than the previous ones... PS3 and X360 will soon have new motion controls: Sony and Microsoft just can't end this generation right after the launch of their new toys, the consumer would feel confused, if not abused... The HD tech is already impressive enough for most games possible, and game's budgets are already really high: higher would be too risky for most teams out there... never forget a good game takes time: 2 years is a minimum, and i don't think most devs want to already develop games for the next gen, with brand new tools to master, rising costs, small initial userbase, etc... once again, too many risks, while profits are finally secured this gen... The only company needing something new on the market will be Nintendo, for all the reasons we all know by now... the so-called "Wii HD" will maybe come sooner than the other "next-gens", if Nintendo want to have the same 3rd party library as PS360, and really be the market leader this time, for all types of games, even the most "hardcore" and all the "graphic beasts"... But anyway, i think Nintendo will first release a handheld update, as DS will soon be 6 years old... with the brand new DSi on the market, it won't happen tomorrow anyway, as once again, the consumer would feel "abused" if a new console was realeased before 2011... I only have Wii and DS, but i know i don't want to spend more money on hardware right now, as both consoles have many great games announced for 2010... for me, the Wii's even gonna have its best year so far, with at least 10 excellent and "big budget" titles already in the want lists of many... and many "yet to announce" projects we still know nothing about... 2011 and 2012 will logically follow that trend on Wii, the current market leader after all, even if 2013 (or holidays 2012) will be the year for Nintendo's next home console... So no twilight, but quite the exact opposite: many good games to come for all the consoles out there, which is great for everyone... we never had so many choices: all the past classics are easily available, the digital distribution is gaining momentum, and the number of excelllent games released each year is absolutely stunning, in any of the "genres" or "styles" each of us could like... in the end, i think this generation will be remembered as the best ever...         Well its nintendo that reallly should we focused right now since theyre the trend setter. And yeah, I consider the motion control on PS360 a next gen than current gen. Generations arent about technology its about how you played the game. And if motion controls will succeed we never seen any games like we enjoyed today. If carnival games makes more profit from take 2 do you think theyll make another GTA game in a HD console with outdated controllers especially SONY and MS  embraced motion controls?   I can see it, carnival games using Project Natal instead of waggling you can use your whole body of course in that time the Wii will become a core console because its the only console that still using traditional controls.

 

A gen doesn't start each time a new peripheral is introduced...

That would be like saying a new gen started when Wii Fit came out because of the balance board...

Ail said: Avinash_Tyagi said: PS3 and 360 motion controls wont succeed, Sony and MS will be forced to launch new consoles. Why does nintendo need anything new, sales show that it doesn't people prefer Wii over PS3 and 360, even now, Wii HD isn't needed, because consumers don't care Nintendo doesn't need the 3rd party library of the PS3 and 360, in fact its games outsell third party titles   Because sales were down 30% YoY before the cut and even after the cut 2009 fiscal sales will be lower than 2008 fiscal ( a thing about unheard of for a console that had a cut the majority of the year). And because profit will be down 30% or so... It's release something new and watch profit go down again in 2010 fiscal and watch the stock keep going down...

Actually whether its sales are down for the fiscal year, has yet to be determined, currently profits are expected to be down, but we don't know if fiscal year sales will be down until after March.

Also you're assuming profit would go down in 2010, no certainty of that, in fact it could go back up, depending on slaes, your entire argument is based on speculation.

 

Only thing you know with any certainty is that profits are expected to be down by 30% for this year from projections

Ail said: yushire said: 68soul said: I think this generation will last longer than the previous ones... PS3 and X360 will soon have new motion controls: Sony and Microsoft just can't end this generation right after the launch of their new toys, the consumer would feel confused, if not abused... The HD tech is already impressive enough for most games possible, and game's budgets are already really high: higher would be too risky for most teams out there... never forget a good game takes time: 2 years is a minimum, and i don't think most devs want to already develop games for the next gen, with brand new tools to master, rising costs, small initial userbase, etc... once again, too many risks, while profits are finally secured this gen... The only company needing something new on the market will be Nintendo, for all the reasons we all know by now... the so-called "Wii HD" will maybe come sooner than the other "next-gens", if Nintendo want to have the same 3rd party library as PS360, and really be the market leader this time, for all types of games, even the most "hardcore" and all the "graphic beasts"... But anyway, i think Nintendo will first release a handheld update, as DS will soon be 6 years old... with the brand new DSi on the market, it won't happen tomorrow anyway, as once again, the consumer would feel "abused" if a new console was realeased before 2011... I only have Wii and DS, but i know i don't want to spend more money on hardware right now, as both consoles have many great games announced for 2010... for me, the Wii's even gonna have its best year so far, with at least 10 excellent and "big budget" titles already in the want lists of many... and many "yet to announce" projects we still know nothing about... 2011 and 2012 will logically follow that trend on Wii, the current market leader after all, even if 2013 (or holidays 2012) will be the year for Nintendo's next home console... So no twilight, but quite the exact opposite: many good games to come for all the consoles out there, which is great for everyone... we never had so many choices: all the past classics are easily available, the digital distribution is gaining momentum, and the number of excelllent games released each year is absolutely stunning, in any of the "genres" or "styles" each of us could like... in the end, i think this generation will be remembered as the best ever...         Well its nintendo that reallly should we focused right now since theyre the trend setter. And yeah, I consider the motion control on PS360 a next gen than current gen. Generations arent about technology its about how you played the game. And if motion controls will succeed we never seen any games like we enjoyed today. If carnival games makes more profit from take 2 do you think theyll make another GTA game in a HD console with outdated controllers especially SONY and MS  embraced motion controls?   I can see it, carnival games using Project Natal instead of waggling you can use your whole body of course in that time the Wii will become a core console because its the only console that still using traditional controls.   A gen doesn't start each time a new peripheral is introduced... That would be like saying a new gen started when Wii Fit came out because of the balance board...

 

 

I did say how you play not about new peripherals. We're in generation that graphics dont matter anymore. You dont believe me but PS360 are from the old generation not in current generation. Were emmersion and graphics drives the gamers its not in this current generation. Now its about social and casual games and arcade type gameplay. And till now 3rd parties still dont get it. But SONY and MS definitely get it the problem was theyll alienate their core fanbase if they goto that route. And thus losing their fanbase,. but hey... as long as they have money right?

 

 

They will not succeed though but it'll help Nintendo more since Ninty are going to upmarket. WM+ and the nunchuck are their secret weapon. Anyone here knows why Nintendo patented the nunchuck? Thats right. Where are you going now third parties where will you go?

Ail said: A gen doesn't start each time a new peripheral is introduced... That would be like saying a new gen started when Wii Fit came out because of the balance board...

The motion controllers will either completely replace the classic current controllers, and the whole game libraries made for them, thus changing the whole direction and values of the game industry, that is basically the definition of "new generation" OR be treated like optional peripherals.

In the latter case, they won't have an effect on sales, and the HD consoles won't have a reason to sell for longer than 5 years, therefore the next generation will come soon anyways.

Avinash_Tyagi said: 68soul said: Avinash_Tyagi said: PS3 and 360 motion controls wont succeed, Sony and MS will be forced to launch new consoles. Why does nintendo need anything new, sales show that it doesn't people prefer Wii over PS3 and 360, even now, Wii HD isn't needed, because consumers don't care Nintendo doesn't need the 3rd party library of the PS3 and 360, in fact its games outsell third party titles   I don't agree, and will try to explain why without being too long... First, i don't care personally about PS360 motion controls, just like i don't care about PS360 in general... but i don't think these new devices will go unnoticed in the industry, so new games will be made for these... These new control methods will never have the same userbase as the wiimote, that's for sure, but they will have some success, and development teams will need some time to make really good games for these... you just can't tell them after a year or two: it's already too late, your games have to be ported to our next gen console... doesn't make any sense economically, and if Sony and Microsoft want to have a good relantionship with 3rd parties, it would be a total lack of respect... Then, as you can see in my sig, i personally don't care about HD, and i don't want the "Wii HD" right now, i'm happy with what i have when it comes to the hardware... but... on the software side, Wii is missing a lot of gems, and the overall quality of many titles could be easily improved with a more powerful hardware... many "avid" gamers do care about such things, and these people are the ones buying 10/20 games a year, while most "casuals" (don't like the word, but anyway) only buy a couple of games each year... Now, you're right, 41 of the 50 best selling games this gen do appear on Nintendo consoles... and the Top 10 is only made of Nintendo 1st party games... but if NEARLY ALL the best games released on PS360 could easily get ported to Wii, then the console would be a "real" market leader, just like PS2 was the gen before... PS360 would then just have a few exclusives each year to become differentiated, and most important, Wii would have a big enough "core userbase" to convince all the 3rd parties around the world to make high budgets games for it... Which means more excellent games for us, and even more choice: and that's why i care... it's all about the games, not about the hardware or the graphics themselves...   They wont go unnoticed in the industry, but the industry is not consumers, consumers won't care unless it can give an experience that trumps the Wii, so far there is no evidence of that Wii is missing a lot of games that don't really cater to the mass market, most consumers don't care about uncharted or FF13, or even Halo, and if it were true that people weren't buying Wii games, then why does Wii push far more software and have comparable attach rates? Nintendo would lose a lot of profit trying to chase after those games, for little benefit, in terms of sales and software profits, plus it would alienate a lot of Wii owners who wouldn't want to update so soon.

 

The people who will care about these new controllers and will make these successful (or not) will be the actual PS360 owners, people who didn't want to touch a "casual" or "outdated" console like Wii, and didn't believe in motion controls so far... but now that it's available for their favourite machine, they will just go crazy about it...

And don't forget that PS360 have still some "userbase growth" left: the elitist price has kept many people away from PS3 (not so true for 360), but if now, some newcomers have to make a choice, the PS360 and Wii will be in direct competition, more so than ever before... if the motion controls in PS360 are good (and they should be, Sony and Microsoft are not that stupid), with the prices now closer, and with all the other features PS360 already have, Wii may loose its momentum quite easily...

Now, the mass market don't care for most of these "hardcore" games, that may be true... but don't forget that it's always the "avid gamers" who are the most important customers: the attach rate for the Gamecube was higher than the ones of PS2 and Xbox, nearly 10 games sold for each Gamecube... not because of the huge and very diverse library, we all know that, but because the "core" Nintendo fanbase buys A LOT of games (and more often, a lot of 1st party games, first and foremost): something many people do forget...

But that "core" userbase hasn't changed much: we're still only 10-15 millions, while the rest of the Wii's userbase are kids, families, casuals, newcomers, fitness girls, soccer moms, etc, etc... i have nothing against these people, i find it great that everyone may find games for their own tastes, and that everyone may be happy with a Wii: but the good Wii attach rate do exist because of people like US, people who buy 10/20 games a year, if not more... the average attach rate is higher thanks to the people you meet here, or everywhere on the net... while the "mass market" buys (massively) only a couple or a handful of titles each year, like Wii Fit or Mario Kart...

And to attract the "real", "core", "avid" gamers, and have an EVEN BETTER attach rate, Nintendo needs to have most of the best games released each year ALSO on Wii, in EVERY genre... it's the only way to have decent sales for 3rd parties, otherwise, the 1st party will be the only BIG hits, while 3rd parties will have some moderate "niche" success, and maybe some hits, but with sports and music games only...

If you want a Wii put in a large but very limited "sports and music" niche, while all the action/adventures, RPGs, FPS go to the competition, good for you, but that's not what i want... and btw, you're slightly hypocritical, or you contradict yourself: in another thread, i've just readed you wrote "We want quality games to come to Wii"... and now, you're telling me that because Wii is supposed to be a "mass market" console, the Wii owners don't care for all the other quality games out there? Just as if we all want to play the same games, or we may all be happy with the poor efforts actually made for that brand new "mass market"... with a few exceptions, of course: but not everyone has the talent of the Nintendo teams, even for "casual" games like Wii Fit or Wii Sports Resort... and i don't even mention Zelda or Metroid or Mario, of course...

 

68soul said:   The people who will care about these new controllers and will make these successful (or not) will be the actual PS360 owners, people who didn't want to touch a "casual" or "outdated" console like Wii, and didn't believe in motion controls so far... but now that it's available for their favourite machine, they will just go crazy about it... And don't forget that PS360 have still some "userbase growth" left: the elitist price has kept many people away from PS3 (not so true for 360), but if now, some newcomers have to make a choice, the PS360 and Wii will be in direct competition, more so than ever before... if the motion controls in PS360 are good (and they should be, Sony and Microsoft are not that stupid), with the prices now closer, and with all the other features PS360 already have, Wii may loose its momentum quite easily... Now, the mass market don't care for most of these "hardcore" games, that may be true... but don't forget that it's always the "avid gamers" who are the most important customers: the attach rate for the Gamecube was higher than the ones of PS2 and Xbox, nearly 10 games sold for each Gamecube... not because of the huge and very diverse library, we all know that, but because the "core" Nintendo fanbase buys A LOT of games (and more often, a lot of 1st party games, first and foremost): something many people do forget... But that "core" userbase hasn't changed much: we're still only 10-15 millions, while the rest of the Wii's userbase are kids, families, casuals, newcomers, fitness girls, soccer moms, etc, etc... i have nothing against these people, i find it great that everyone may find games for their own tastes, and that everyone may be happy with a Wii: but the good Wii attach rate do exist because of people like US, people who buy 10/20 games a year, if not more... the average attach rate is higher thanks to the people you meet here, or everywhere on the net... while the "mass market" buys (massively) only a couple or a handful of titles each year, like Wii Fit or Mario Kart... And to attract the "real", "core", "avid" gamers, and have an EVEN BETTER attach rate, Nintendo needs to have most of the best games released each year ALSO on Wii, in EVERY genre... it's the only way to have decent sales for 3rd parties, otherwise, the 1st party will be the only BIG hits, while 3rd parties will have some moderate "niche" success, and maybe some hits, but with sports and music games only... If you want a Wii put in a large but very limited "sports and music" niche, while all the action/adventures, RPGs, FPS go to the competition, good for you, but that's not what i want... and btw, you're slightly hypocritical, or you contradict yourself: in another thread, i've just readed you wrote "We want quality games to come to Wii"... and now, you're telling me that because Wii is supposed to be a "mass market" console, the Wii owners don't care for all the other quality games out there? Just as if we all want to play the same games, or we may all be happy with the poor efforts actually made for that brand new "mass market"... with a few exceptions, of course: but not everyone has the talent of the Nintendo teams, even for "casual" games like Wii Fit or Wii Sports Resort... and i don't even mention Zelda or Metroid or Mario, of course...

Ah, but most PS3/360 owners won't care for it, feeling it doesn't add much to their games

They have some userbase growth no doubt, but like I said this will only split the market, leaving only some owners of the wand and NATAL and most without

Wii would only lose momentum if the games that those controllers offer could compete, but they can't there is no selling software like on Wii you want Sports or Fit, that's Wii only

Avid gamers are not the most important customer, I don't know where that myth came from it is the larger mass market that is most important, the avid gamer is a much smaller segment of the market than the less avid gamers, the leading consoles always have lower but competitive attach rates, the Wii has very competitive attach rates and pushes a ton of software every year, and makes much more profit, there is no reason to chase the avid gamer.  Actually the mass market buys a lot of games, if you look at the million sellers for the Wii you'll see a lot of games that are not core market games.

I want Nintendo to keep on reaching the larger market and making biggest profit, because much of the rest of the industry is sick and dying, Nintendo on the other hand is healthy and thriving.

Not at all Hypocritical, as I consider Wii sports and Wii Fit to be much more quality than games like Bioshock and GTA, and the market agrees, just look at the market reception of the games to compare.  I'd rather Nintendo not worry about the avid gamers, because chasing them has only left Sony and MS in dire straits and huge losses, while Nintendo has made massive profits, chasing the fringe is not worht their time and effort and what they would gain is less than what they will lose in the effort.

Sony and MS motion controls AREN'T supposed to really succeed this gen, nevertheless both companies need to release them already as add-ons this gen, as they absolutely need to experiment to fill the conceptual gap from Nintendo.

@ Avinash_Tyagi

Well, i'm afraid we won't agree, or at least not on everything... you make good points, as Nintendo is indeed in a very healthy situation, while their competitors fight to death in a saturated market... i know it just as well as you...

But how could an even more diverse and "universal" Wii library be negative for Nintendo?

Their royalties are the same, no matter the genre or the success of a game... more games released for everyone on Wii means more sales for Nintendo, and also means more choices for any type of Wii gamer... isn't that positive?

And the mass market crowd buy games, of course... but not as much as the "avid" gamers... and not Little King's Story, not Okami, not Muramasa...

These are quality titles, too, you know... and they deserve to sell better... and if you want to see this happen, better sales for quality "niche" titles, then the Wii needs to "federate" all the "open minded" avid gamers out there, to create a "real" viable market for such titles, just like PS2 did a few years ago...

Now, it seems that everyone in the industry is happy with the Wii put in a kind of "safe niche" of its own: family games, games for children, sports and physical activities, music games...

They know Nintendo's 1st party games are already 50/60% of the market anyway, and that there's only a small half left for them... and they won't take any risk or try any new and original idea, thinkin' that the "real" gamers who could be interested are elsewhere anyway...

Iif all they do is games in these "mass market" styles and in these styles only, then it's not a good thing for any "open minded" Nintendo gamer, not a good thing AT ALL...

Last gen, we were "kiddie", this gen, we're "casual": when will we finally be respected and treated just as we are, skilled gamers who sometimes, have played for a long, long time, who grew up with some of the best designed games ever, and who love QUALITY games, all types of them?

Never, it seems, and that's what i find quite sad...

If a new Wii was technically equal to the actual PS360, Sony and Microsoft would not be in a difficult situation in a saturated market: they would become obsolete, with only a few exclusives left.

And Wii would then be the new king in town, respected by all, without all these endless critics we've heard or readed for 3 or 4 years... sounds good, don't you think?

I'd say maybe the midpoint, but we're nowhere near the end. 2010 is arguably the best looking year yet for the PS3 with GoW3, GT5, Heavy Rain, Resistance 3 (maybe), Killzone 3 (rumoured), Agent, etc.

The Wii is coming out with at least 2 new mario games so the Wii is nowhere near its end yet

And the 360 has ME2, Fable 3, GeoW3, Halo Reach, SC Conviction, etc all probably coming 2010.


This gen won't be over until at least 2012 I think.