By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Ten Week Countdown 2009!

COME on start predicting guys....

I don't wanna be the first to predict!

All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Around the Network

You are correct. Thanks for telling me that. The previous stuff is a complete waste then.

Just predict when you want Darth, you can edit it remember.

I have lots of college work to do at the moment but as next week is half term, I will be putting up my prediction Thursday night or sometime Friday when there is less proper work urgency.

darthdevidem01 said:
COME on start predicting guys....

I don't wanna be the first to predict!

Go for it, darth.  It's great when you're wrong lately, because the games/systems you want to do well have been exceeding your expectations.  If you're gonna be wrong, that's the way to be wrong.



TBH I dunno how to go about predicting this

it will most probably be the most unpredictable Holiday Season ever

+ I am 50% convinced MS will drop the price of the 360 ARcade to $150 on black friday

so I just don't know what to predict.....thats why I thought if some others predicted I may get a "rough idea"

All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Around the Network

@Ken... it is very true.... under predicting is a lot better than over predicting, as proved by the PS3 last year.

If you predict 200k and the real figure turns out to be 100k, you are 100% out, but if the real figure ends up being 300k, you were still 100k out, but in percentage it is only 33%.

At least that is how it feels in the mind... in reality as the real figure is pretty much set (ie, we don't know it yet, and whatever we predict here will not effect what the real figure is unless one of us goes and buys a few thousand consoles) and if you predict 50k above or below it is will be the same percentage difference.... it's just that because we are predicting before the real figures (wel duh, no point predicting after) we then compare the real to our predicted in our mind, rather than comparing our predictions to the real.


Week 1 - 250k (Japan boost for Tekken)
Week 2 - 280k (Fall of Tekken in Japan, Launch of 250 GB PS3 Slim, MW2)
Week 3 - 270k
Week 4 - 280k
Week 5 - 450k (Black Friday)
Week 6 - 400k
Week 7 - 500k
Week 8 - 900k
Week 9 - 750k
Week 10 - 350k
Total - 4330k


Week 1 - 160k
Week 2 - 230k (MW2 bundle :o)
Week 3 - 210k
Week 4 - 220k
Week 5 - 400k (Black Friday)
Week 6 - 350k
Week 7 - 430k
Week 8 - 770k
Week 9 - 660k
Week 10 - 240k
Total - 3670k


Week 1 - 450k
Week 2 - 520k
Week 3 - 550k
Week 4 - 650k
Week 5 - 1000k
Week 6 - 750k
Week 7 - 870k
Week 8 - 1100k
Week 9 - 950k
Week 10 - 400k
Total - 7240k


How I came to these numbers:

PS3 is going to be up YOY very well due to the Slim and the price cut, given that the ten weeks start eight weeks after this happened, I put the boost moderately at 17-18%.  Given that the more agressive marketing, price point, and bundles (EU) will cancel out the diminishing effect of the slim/price cut.  Public perception is good for the PS3 right now, this will be a good Q4.  Also, I have one acronym for you:  FFXIII

360 is in the PS3s predicament last year.  No lower baseline for sales, so the percentages are going to drop.  And without Gears to bolster it's Q4 line-up, all it does is share multi-plat games and has L4D2 to rise sales higher.  I have it down 30 % but that might be a bit severe.  But I'll stick with it. 

Wii is in a weird predicament.  Sales are down very much so YOY and and even though the price cut has raised sales over the past two weeks, it's sales for both weeks are down YOY, so I'm going to go with that trend.  I do think that NSMB Wii will raise the sales of the Wii over the previous weeks when it comes out, but it's laregely selling to a userbase that is already there (Not sure many people who buy NSMB Wii will not have played/bought SMG).  So I have it down 33% which is in line with what it's been down YOY for the year so far.

DmeisterJ is too low on PS360!

All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

DMJ... I think Black Friday is week 4 this year...I mean I could be wrong as I am not American but I thought it was the third Friday of November, which lands in week 4 this year.... I added you in anyway.

As I asked, if anyone can correct me on when Black Friday is, I would lke to know.

It's the fifth week. Thanksgiving is the 4th Thursday, so BF is the 4th Friday.