If Natal fails then .wait. it won't.

haaa you almost had me.

I am very sure it won't fail. MS has secured the best of the best developers supporting Project Natal and Lionhead and Rare are working on Natal as well can't be a bad thing.

And even IF natal fails, MS won't have much to worry about. They just might get new hardware out in late 2011 (one year after natal). The Xbox360 would be 6 years old by then, which is pretty much for a product in such a industry. The PS2 was 6 years old when the PS3 launched.

I can't think of any screnario that wouldn't make the 360 a success for MS.

If it was still 1998 and Rare was still an important and talented AAA developer, if Peter Molyneux didn't have a long track record of over promising and under delivering, and if third party publishers were enthusiastic about supporting Natal with their best teams you might have a point.

Price cut to $150 I guess. They seem to be billing Natal as the second coming of Jesus so if it fails they could really be screwed.

I personally think both Natal and the Wand destined to fail. There are too many existing 360 and PS3 owners out there. The Wii Mote and Sensor Bar were originally going to be Gamecube accessories. Nintendo chose to launch them with a new console for a reason.

Pricecut.

Then the following year... Xbox 3, with Natal from the start.

When Natal comes out, however it does, they will push it hard for at least a year. If it doesn't do well the first christmas, they will try again next christmas. After that they should be planning for a new Xbox to hit around Christmas 2012.

If natal fails then I see 360 sales ending up in the 60 million range, if it does well and gives the 360 new life, 70+

My guess is as follows:

If Natal is a total flop, Microsoft stops press and support for it and allows it do die a slow death while never actually admitting it was a failure until years later. Focus will then be placed entirely on the xbox 720.

If however Natal is a success, expect the xbox 720 to also utilize it, after all if it's just an advanced controller making a much more powerful system that's also compatible with it should be simple.

A Halo:Combat Evolved remake and 2012 Xbox 720 with exclusive launch titles.

Does MS have rights to blu-ray as it's part of mainly Maxwell, Phillips, and Sony

They could always use hologram disc which holds 1 terabyte of space.