| Serious_frusting said: What will nintendo have left once he kicks the can? Just asking because i really dont know |
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| Pineapple said: Wait, 10.3% of NSMB DS' sales came in the first week? That doesn't fit in with VGChartz numbers It has it at 6.22%.
As for him saying that it will sell 10 million in its first fiscal year. What does that mean for christmas? Let's see. Say it will sell as Wii Fit did in that period in Q1 (what Wii Fit did in 09 will equal NSMB Wii in 10). It sold 4.2 million, and that was the by far best selling game in the period. Thinking that NSMB Wii will beat that is unlikely, so ~ 4 million in Q1 seems logical. That means he expects it to sell around 6 million during the christmas period. Edit: Believe it or not, but selling for many years isn't that common on Wii. Miyamoto isn't talking about it selling some copies, he's talking about it being an evergreen title - something Super Mario Galaxy wasn't, and it is debatable if Mario Kart Wii was. If he is indeed saying it will be an evergreen title, it means he's saying it will sell Wii Fit-esque, rather than be a larger Super Mario Galaxy. I mean, look a bit closer at it. He's saying it will sell 10 million in 4 months, but not drop off a lot. He cannot possibly believe that it will sell under 20 million; this is not captain obvious at all.
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What are you talking about? Only titles that sell like wii fit are evergreen titles? That makes no sense, a title that stays in the top 50 after years on the market is an evergreen title. Supermario galaxy remains close to the wii's top 20 everyweek and mario kart wii is still seling 100,000 copies a week. Mario kart is definitely an evergreen title and a strong argument could be made that galaxy is as well.
Setting expectations low? He's essentially saying that in 16 months, the game is likely to sell around 20 million. In other words; he's sort of saying that it could become the quickest selling title ever. Yes, how dreadfully modest Miyamoto is.
Look at it this way: The holiday quarter = the other 3 months combined nearly the other 3 quarters combined (it was 20M vs 24M last year).
NSMB will sell 10 million in 2 months of the holiday quarter, + 1 other quarter. That's essentially 3.5 quarters, if we claim that a year actually has 6 quarters.
In other words, year 2 will have 70% more sellingtime. So if NSMB Wii averages 40% less in its second year, it will sell 10 million more. And is it really "continuing to sell after even a year" if you drop by more than half your sales?
I'm reading this as him saying he believes it can hit 20 million by the end of the next FY. To my knowledge, that is the quickest any game has ever reached 20 million. Although Wii Fit/MKWii would have made it if they launched in the holiday period.
Yes, he's setting the expectations very low.
| Pineapple said: Edit: Believe it or not, but selling for many years isn't that common on Wii. Miyamoto isn't talking about it selling some copies, he's talking about it being an evergreen title - something Super Mario Galaxy wasn't, and it is debatable if Mario Kart Wii was. If he is indeed saying it will be an evergreen title, it means he's saying it will sell Wii Fit-esque, rather than be a larger Super Mario Galaxy. |
What makes you say Mario Kart Wii's "evergreen title" status is debatable? It sold over 100,000 in its 78th week. Compare its sales to the top selling DS games:
http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Mario+Kart+Wii+-+Wii®2=All&game2=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS®3=All&game3=Nintendogs+-+DS&weeks=80&weekly=1
It may fall in sales later on, but so far, it's pretty much only being outperformed by Wii Fit, and that's saying something.
edit: Here for a comparison with Wii Fit. That game is friggin ridiculous...
10 million in a fiscal year. That's quite crazy.
Pixel Art can be fun.
I think probably he means "as opposed to Galaxy."
GTAIV (non-evergreen game) vs. NSMBDS (evergreen game) vs. Galaxy
http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Grand+Theft+Auto+IV+-+X360®2=All&game2=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii®3=All&game3=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&weeks=156
Which does Galaxy look more like? Miyamoto wants a NSMBDS chart, with that big 1.9m unit holiday bump in the third holiday, not the .5m holiday bump in the first or second holiday.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
c0rd said:
What makes you say Mario Kart Wii's "evergreen title" status is debatable? It sold over 100,000 in its 78th week. Compare its sales to the top selling DS games: http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Mario+Kart+Wii+-+Wii®2=All&game2=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS®3=All&game3=Nintendogs+-+DS&weeks=80&weekly=1 It may fall in sales later on, but so far, it's pretty much only being outperformed by Wii Fit, and that's saying something. edit: Here for a comparison with Wii Fit. That game is friggin ridiculous... |
You're pretty much correct. In retrospect, it was a silly thing to claim, and with the proof you presented, I was obviously incorrect here.
My bad. I mean, Mario Kart Wii is actually the game that sold the most in the first 12 months from the original release ever (by VGChartz data).
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