Setting expectations low? He's essentially saying that in 16 months, the game is likely to sell around 20 million. In other words; he's sort of saying that it could become the quickest selling title ever. Yes, how dreadfully modest Miyamoto is.
Look at it this way: The holiday quarter = the other 3 months combined nearly the other 3 quarters combined (it was 20M vs 24M last year).
NSMB will sell 10 million in 2 months of the holiday quarter, + 1 other quarter. That's essentially 3.5 quarters, if we claim that a year actually has 6 quarters.
In other words, year 2 will have 70% more sellingtime. So if NSMB Wii averages 40% less in its second year, it will sell 10 million more. And is it really "continuing to sell after even a year" if you drop by more than half your sales?
I'm reading this as him saying he believes it can hit 20 million by the end of the next FY. To my knowledge, that is the quickest any game has ever reached 20 million. Although Wii Fit/MKWii would have made it if they launched in the holiday period.
Yes, he's setting the expectations very low.
