looking at  sales trend for TP, i can't be anything but pessimistic (and i am a huge wii supporter). I'm pretty sure games like No More Heroes and Nights are going to be huge flops, being too much of a niche game. PES08 will flop too, although i expect it to be an amazing game. i guess wii owners are not into sports game or that they already own a 360 and buy good looking games rather than strangely new ones...
i am confident that RE UC will sale well, but probably not much better (if even that) than RE4 wii. I can't see GHIII sale well since everyne has one already but i can well be wrong on this one, as i don't get why people buy it in the first place...

and Z&W is on my top list but i'm afraid for it. i guess it will sale reasonably well, like 6-800k WW.

some of your games don't even exist Onimusha. Unless Skies of Arcadia 2 was announced last night, that game has never been announced. It was on a list some guy made that was totally debunked, but outside of that no one has said anything about that game. Some of them we know virtually nothing about, and are very early in development. It's hard to call something a flop or not when you don't know what kind of reception the game is getting, if there is any hype around it, or if it has a positive buzz, like with Project O. We don't know much about that game.

We're keeping it to the holiday season. Thusly 6 or 7 big name titles.

adventure games are dead. Zack & Wiki will flop. And it sucks, because I love adventure games and would love to see a revival (Lucasarts. Monkey Island 5. Get onto it!)

Skies of Arcadia 2 is the only thing that can be argued to not exist, and so far the only thing not known about it is its platform of choice.

Actually most of those games are in fairly late production, in fact all the games on my list are comming out in late 07 and spring-summer 08 (with exception of skies of arcadia 2). And even then how many of the games on your 6-7 list are actually comming out this holiday season as you claim?

Since the only real thing we know for certain about any of these games on either list is their demographic of choice and market appeal, I don't see how we have that much more to weigh closer titles on vs more distant titles. We can be pretty darn sure what the market appeal of half of these games are by their franchise alone.

Well let me put it this way. There is very little (is there any at all?) debate about how good Zack and Wiki will be, it will of course be awesome. The question is whether or not people are going to give it a fair shot.

So yes, check out some of the videos and interviews surrounding the game and I think you will find it is a puzzle game that doesn't just encourage you to find the "one designed solution" solution, but rather to think creatively and find one of the many ..many solutions there are to choose from. (Although the choice will probably not be apparent in the beginning levels due to their inherant simplicity).

In addition to that it has, according to IGN's "Bozon", the "best puzzles in a game in the last decade!". Add on a great art direction that is light hearted and full of humor. Throw in some of the most superb production value with animations for just about everything, including things that don't have to do with the puzzle but are just the way the character would react etc...and you will only begin to understand the reasons why people are falling in love with this game.

The absolute final verdict is of course still out until we have had a chance to play for ourselves but I have a lot of confidense based on what I have seen and heard that the game will not only be superbly fun, but challenging, long, and full of replay value as well.

In short, ratings haven't come in yet, but yes, they will be good!

In other news: Table Tennis is "flipping"

No More Heros - NOT
It will do okay in Japan, 250k sales

PES2008 - BIG FLOP
It's innovative, but no way i want to play football like that
Most Japanese will choose PS2 version over it (if they got both consoles)

Nights - between two
Some Sega fan will likes it

Zack & Wiki - NOT
The lower retail price will help, many old gamer like this genre, 300k

Resident Evil - BIG HIT
If a remake of RE4 can sold 400k copies, a new spin off with a zapper can do 600k

Guitar Hero III - between two
Wont stand a chance in japan

I imagine Zack and Wiki will sell well enough to make a profit, but stay in the hundreds of thousands. Besides, people who still play point and click adventures are the most hardcore gamers on the planet, right after people who genuinely enjoy games like Hearts of Iron and Europa Universalis, and everyone knows the harcorer the game, the worse it sells. =P

Umbrella Chronicles will probably end up beating a million, maybe even two if it's even better than it looks, but No More Heroes will probably end up as a niche title with insanely good reviews.

PES and Guitar Hero are the types of games that will definitely do well on the Wii. I believe that still a majority of Wii owners are hardcore gamers who got the console due to interest in Nintendo's first party games and new controller, or lack of interest in the direction the other consoles were going, but extremely casual established franchises like these two should really help with attracting a wider audience. The amount of new gamers would be much greater if both games didn't come on the PS2 as well, but there's still too much money to be earned with it for the developers to just walk away.

All of the games from the original post are on the market for some time, so i'm bringing this thread back to comment the predictions

I'm going to use 500k sales as some sort of flop indicator.

No More Heroes - FLOP - A shame really, because this is one of the best games Wii has to offer

PES 2008 - UNDECIDED - Didn't do well in Japan, but Europeans are buying it, and it will be able to pass 500k without any problems, even has a shot @ 1mil in the long run

NiGHTS - FLOP - one of the larger flops on this list, only 180k

Zack & Wiki - FLOP - Same as for NMH. It still has a shot at reacing 500k in the long term

Resident Evil: UC - NOT - a million selling rail-shooter

Guitar Hero III - NOT - 2,7 million sold

I think your flop indicator's a bit off. I'm pretty certain both NMH and Z&W covered their production costs and then some. That wouldn't be considered a flop from a developer's standpoint. It wouldn't be considered a hit either, but I'd hardly say either of them flopped.