Unless PS3 gets some great games to support it, it'll sell okay to some casual users who are willing to give it a try.

NATAL will sell a lot if they come out with a new SKU. X360 owners will buy the new sku because it's the new model. Also, Natal has a huge draw to the casual audience. NATAL will sell huge if they can figure out really simple and neat ways of using it. Such as no controls for running menus etc. Lets say you can rent and stream movies without the use of a controller. There's also a lot of potential for mini games.

It would take some huge flaws in Natals execution for it to fail.

I don't really care, as long they continue to bring better games, the motion control is just extra gravy. I suspect both will release better version with their next consoles.

One little point : Bringing more powerful console this GEN is not a strategy, it's the norm. Nintendo was the one who did it the other around which worked out perfectly.

In much the same way that casual readers have higher standards for choosing Dan Brown? I think you're underestimating the power of hype here.

Hype, by the way, is something that neither Sphere or Natal has any of. Maybe in the gaming press, but in newspapers? TV? I don't think so.

Both will probably be good additions though, in much the same way that microphones, guitar controllers and quiz controllers are.

Not the same way they choose Dan Brown. Books and games have hurdles for the mainstream, but not the same hurdles, so comparing the two isn't the same.

The problem I see is the difficulty of getting a decent install base without a "must have title", and the difficulty of getting developers to devote themselves to making a "must have title" without an install base to sell to.

The risk I see is Sony and Microsoft getting their own version of "tacked on" motion controls, instead of games built from the ground up to take unique advantage of new control opportunities.

i woudnt say minimum as we dont know how they will market it. however i have more faith in NATAL than SONYs wand for one reason. MARKETING! M$ can market a product to no end and we've seen the success that has accompanied their marketing. however both will be hard pressed to reinvent the image of their console against the wii. the other important thing is what kind of support they will get. And that is really the make or break aspect right there. Good games will ensure sales and a lack of quality titles will hurt adoption rates

Microsoft is launching a new Xbox360 with Natal bundeled in the package, this is a very good move to drive some sales, but so far there is no software lineup that will justify Natal entirely. Even though developers are planning to include Natal on their games. I see the camera as a complement to the gameplay, like using your gestures to command a squad while you use the controler to control your character, but this subutilizes the peripheral and will not be worth the full price of the camera. Microsoft is overhyping Natal in order to get huge sales, it depends of the lineup how much legs it will have.

Sony wand is a good concept, but one mistake was the launch of tehr esedigned system without the wand, so part of the momentum is lost. The other obstacle they need to adress is to justify having that want with a sphere in the living room that is far less attcartive to a consumer than a remote.

IMVHO neither will be comparable to WiiMote, nevertheless they are both necessary for their companies to experiment and fill the conceptual gap from Nintendo before next gen.

I think they can be compared, but that depends on several factors I'm just not sure about. Did/does the Wii sell to a "new" demographic, or to the kind of audience that'll play a flash game when all their friends are talking about it?

Not my intent to bash on the Wii here - I realize that it's a perfectly capable console - I'm just wondering about where the people who didn't buy it for that came from.

The main difference between Dan Brown and someone like Hemmingway. has little to do with quality...

It has everything to do with artistic appeal.

Videogames are about as far removed from art as you can get right now.

In your mind your comparing Dan Brown and Hemmingway.... in reality your comparing Dan Brown and Ann Rice.

There is no great "artistic appeal" in videogames as of yet... making your comparison kinda pointless.

Though it's actually a lot harder to be Dan Brown then you give credit...  additionally most "Classics" sold REALLY well at the time they were released.  They were the Dan Brown's of there era.

As Almost Famous puts it.

"Show me any guy who ever said he didn't want to be popular, and I'll show you a scared guy. I've studied the entire history of music. Most of the time, the best stuff is the popular stuff. It's much safer to say popularity sucks, because that allows you to forgive yourself if you suck. And I don't forgive myself. Do you?"

They get the Hype because they're good... there are tons of people who wanna be Dan Brown but aren't.

Will Dan Brown be regarded as a Classic Author?  I doubt it.  But I also doubt anyone from our era will... and if they are... expect it to be a high selling writer.  Like the Harry Potter woman.