The likelihood is that neither the wand or Natal will achieve anywhere near the success of the Wii, since they are addons well after the fact

So really, how are Sony and MS expecting them to perform, at what point will they consider them a success?  And if they do fail what will be the response, we know that if they succeed in MS and Sony's eyes, they'll likely become standard in future consoles, but if they fail will Sony and MS revert to their old strategy of just more powerful systems?

I think they will both fail.

I'd think they'd measure it's sucess on how many games 3rd party devs put on it and how profitable first party games are on it.

I don't see much 3rd party support at all since HW pushes for the development for SW... why would a developer who has the user base of both Natal and Ps wand and then many more without it want to develop for a fraction of the user base?

EyeToy sold around 10m on 130m PS2s for an attachment rate of about 8%, I think Sony should be pleased if their controller is anywhere close to successul as that. If PS3 went on to sell 60m a similar attachment rate to EyeToy would only result in about 5m "wands" being sold.

Microsoft talk about Natal as if it's the launch of a new console, I think their expectations seem way too high, I don't see it having a significantly larger attachment rate than EyeToy.

I'm sure Nintendo will continue with motion controllers next gen, but I expect Microsoft and Sony to continue with standard controller but probably with a motion controller as optional extra at launch.

As for continuing with their strategy of just more powerful systems, I don't see how that is related to motion controllers. Even Nintendo continued with the strategy of a more powerful system this gen.

Well, Sony's Wand seems similar to Nintendo's WiiMote, so I guess we might see some Wii/PS3 multiplatform titles. Microsoft seem to go in a different direction though, so that could be a bigger problem for them.

Maybe, I don't think a Wii -> Ps3 port would be as big of a problem with the 360 -> Ps3 ports. If the game is built around the Wii's specs then I could see developers doing a quick port.

I don't think they will fail or be a huge hit.

I don't see either being a major success.

Natal may be an impressive piece of kit but I've still not seen any software that makes it a must buy.
Sony may get Wii ports but they aren't going to get the most successful ports.

I don't see the Wii's current userbase 'upgrading'. We have an 'upgraded' Wii Sports already, will Sony Sports or X-Box Sports really make people buy a whole new system to play? I don't see it. I still don't see an equivalent of the balance board yet either.

If Sony/MS can't get their cameras sitting next to the sensor bar by the time next gen starts they could be in a lot of trouble when Nintendo's next system releases.

A system capable of playing all third party multiplats, an improved online system, a balance board, the strongest 'motion IP' catalog and arguably the strongest first party catalog, backwards compatibility and a retro catalog of Virtual Console calibre will be unstoppable.

I thought that MS will sell natal with EVERY Console so it will be included therefore it would have an impact and would be succesful unless the people would stop buying Xbox360s.

I think that the PS Mote will be more successful then the Eyetoy maybe 10-15% as it seems its a lot more fun. And can be used in way more games than the Eyetoy and it will have some Nice Titels Like RE5 Alternate Edition. If the PS Mote is kind of like the Wii Control then it will be a bigger then the Eyetoy because the Eyetoy was junk. And Re4 makes definetly more fun on WII then on any other Console if RE 5 AE will have the same feeling like RE4 on Wii then it would be definetly a reason to buy this thing. If its the same thing like the WII Controls it will be successful ofcourse not so much like the WII but definetly way more then Eyetoy 15% attachrate is possible in my eyes.

For the natal i dont have a clue personaly i think it sounds better then it will be. First How the Hell will You Use it. Second things like Emotion recognition on you Voice and things like language recognition and it recognizes Feelings on your face. Infact such a thing never was made before. And it will be very very hard to achieve this secondly I doubt it will recognize soft Emotions on Face and Voice and I never saw someone which made Faces and Sounds like an Actor in the Theater while playing. Then no tactile Feedback. there are so many things which can go wrong plus there is no real guarantee it will make fun at all. The girl which Played DodgeBall on E3 looked not very happy.

I think that MS has way way to big goals with Natal and they want to intagrate it in the New Windows and a lot more. Bundling with every Xbox is just the First Step. First they showed the technology Nintendo they dont wanted it then MS and now they are Praising this thing. Nintendo Made a revolution with their Controlls Sony just Copies it and makes it like a WII Mote with WII Motion Plus. But what MS wants with Natal is not a revolution its way too much sorry but this thing wont work as promised. A Input device is there to make the Communication between Player and Software. But Natal wants a lot from the Gamer it want special Movements which can be in best case natural in worst case just stupid. Like the acceleration throiugh the distance between your hands. It wants Faces Voices which can be recognized and I bet you have to learn what you can do and what you cant do i.e what faces it can recognize how you have to make your face or your voice and so on. after awhile it will be annoying. Its to early I doubt it will be so good and this thing should understand what you are saying so you can actualy talk with the XBOX and its understanding you.


We know all Windows and the Tasks which Natal should manage are way more then just an OS. Sorry but if it would be that easy we already would talk to an Computer instead to personal in Stores and if we would pissed it would recognize it and act against it with calm voice and so on.

There are two Scenarios First is Natal can do everything but in such a small extend that it will be boring after a while. And the Game Designer will not be able to implement it useful in a game.

Or it will do everything but the implementation will be so poor it will have so many flaws that the Players will be pissed.

The other Thing which could be is that the Concept of natal makes just not much fun in games.


There is a chance that it will be good but its just unimaginable for me. If it makes really the kind of stuff i think thats just impossible in 10-15 years the technology will be able to do it. The Controlling itself via Camera is not better then the WII PS3 Way so it depends all on the other Abilitys Natal should have. Steering without something in the hand feels just bad. Someone even tried to imagine to play 4 hours GT just waving with your hands in the air.
Or shooting without a pistol in the hand like a 4 year old. I prefered even in this age to hold a Toy Gun in my hands instead of just pretending to shoot. And I quess everyone wanted a Toy Gun.

I can hardly see Natal beeing a success the only thing which could be cool is some Short Multiplayer matches via Web Some Kind of WII Sports. But even that would make more fun if you could hold a controller in your hands. And the lagging is another Factor. For Web Applications yes for games no.


If Ms managed through a miracle to make something Good with this ( In the XBOX 360 Gen) I may even purchase a Xbox but just if it could do the things i would like to do.

They come out with this stuff when the Wii sales are slowing. Is that smart? At best this could make the HD Twins more kid friendly by opening their market to awkward shovel ware Wii games.

It depends on if either one has a killer app. And the third parties can gush all they want, but if there isn't a killer app, those third parties are making the same mistake by jumping on the HD bandwagon with no thought of the escalating costs.