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I think they will both fail.

I'd think they'd measure it's sucess on how many games 3rd party devs put on it and how profitable first party games are on it.

I don't see much 3rd party support at all since HW pushes for the development for SW... why would a developer who has the user base of both Natal and Ps wand and then many more without it want to develop for a fraction of the user base?