You misunderstood...  or i miss write it or something...

The 360 and ps3 are not the same audience ... so i dont think natal and wand will move that much sales for software... even with a large install base. yes it will sell some hardware but not that much since developper wont support it ... Look at the wii...

Wii will see

graphical output standards. IF HD has penetrated the market then yes use the term HD.
WiiM+ will be built into the main controller
Increased internal ram. NO HDD.
Continue to use the individual FC system
Removal of GC slots(no GC controller or mem slots)
"Sensor Bar" will also be WiiSpeak and a digital camera(Wii See?)

Last and unfortunately unknown. I don't believe Nintendo will go into Wii2 completely blind. I firmly believe that they will release something with the Wii that the average person will be able to use daily in their lives making the Wii+ much more broad reaching product than upstream entertainment. What that is I'm not sure. Maybe Wii+ will allow you to have tv input so that you can use your Wii as a channel changet(ie middle device like the old VCR). This way you can have the Wii Menu while your watching TV or a transparent browser while watching some goofy Japanese game show. Then again maybe it will be nothing like that. But I do believe that the next Wii will have something for everyone concept that isn't directly related to gaming.

To be clear, what I am saying is that Microsoft and Sony are specifically going to target the the Wii gamer by adding motion controls.  They want money that consumers are now spending on Wii software to be spent on 360 and PS3 software.

Sony and MS wanted their respective motion controllers to expand their market into family oriented games right? Like the Wiis'? At least for MS, the Japanese developers they interviewed during TGS were all core game developers, can you imagine Kojima for example making a Wii Sports Resort like title? No one among the superstar Japanese developers even remotely looked like they wanted to make casual games on Natal. Nintendo spends millions on R&D to make the games targeted at everyone, that is a big difference. MS probably will have the most advanced gaming system with Natal, but they don't have the most advanced R&D game development for it, neither does Sony.

If you look at the whole Wii package, the look of the system, the menu navigation, its very approachable, all the buttons are huge and feels and sounds very cheerful. You compare this feel with PS3 (super slick) and 360 Blades (youthful and absolutely boyish), the appeal is not the same at all.

Both MS and Sony have a lot of promoting to do in order to market this latest direction of theirs, but it will in fundamental ways, not fit with their core marketing style.

This Generation, according to the profit numbers here (http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=57802). 360 and PS3 are still money losers. I can't see either company really wanting to go with a new console in one or two years and volunteer to lose more money quicker. I remember both companies said 10 years lifecycle for their current gen hardware. Nintendo didn't have to subsidize their consoles at all and they didn't say x years.

Nintendo Home Consoles release dates (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Nintendo)
- Famicom 1983 July (world wide release 1985)
- Super Famicom 1990 Nov
- N64 1996 June
- Gamecube 2001 Sep
- Wii 2006 Nov

Seven years, then six then fives! Five years from 2006 is ... deng-deng-deng 2011. Of course I'm just bullshitting :p I don't know jack : /

it will be a helmet, Miis virtual reality, visual boy 2.0!!!!!!!!!! b_el_i_e_v_e

@catofellow: The multiplatform titles aren't likely because of how different the three control systems are. I could however see some multiplatform titles between Natal and Eyetoy

If the third parties decide to take motion controls seriously, Wii is the most likely option. That's where the installbase and userbase of motion controllers are. And to add to that, that's also where the cheapest development cost is.

Nintendo easilly beats the rest of the industry in creativity as long as nobody else is going to take motion controls seriously and assumption that Nintendo would be against the rest of the industry requires 3rd parties to stop supporting Wii.

There's only one reason for the third parties to start to take motion controls seriously after Natal and Wand, which is that the motion controls obviously are the future. This is also where Wii has huge advantage, because out of the three motion control systems, Wiis is the only one that can be used in core games.

One thing you're right, once Nintendo thinks it can't do anything new with the Wii, they start to look for the release of a new console. But, because we can't really predict when they see themselves running out of ideas, it's impossible to predict a date for a new console based on that. Even Wii Motion+ wasn't released because of running out of ideas, but because of the competing motion controllers.

@bdbdbd
The third parties will take motion controls seriously, because they like Sony and Microsoft, want a piece of what Nintendo is earning.

As for multi plaftform games, it will not be too difficult to make a game that works with a wand and a wiimote, or like you said, a eye toy and natal. Natal and wiimote is where it is tricky, but not impossible. You could play with a standard contoller, and just have toned down Natal usage when the action isn't hectic.

Third parties will not necessarily make the games for Wii because of the higher user base. Multi platform games still routinely sell better on 360 and PS3 despite the much lower user base. And the games will not be limited by the sale of the wand/natal as you may think. Look at guitar hero and rock band, which sold well despite the fact that the instrument controllers work only for these games.

@scruffybunny
I don't believe that it is the expensive R&D that you claim that has led to Nintendo's software success the round. I think it is the complete opposite, they stick to the basics. There is a reason that Nintendo games only cost $50, and 360 and PS3 games cost $60.

I do agree that 3rd parties cannot compete with Nintendo, individually. But if you imagine that Square Enix, Capcom, Konami, Sony, Sega, Namco, Microsoft, etc. could make just 1 game each comparable to what Nintendo could do, then you have something.

They may or may not.  There's a bunch of factors to go into.  First of all, they didn't jump on motion controls when Nintendo invested into it.  And now that MS and Sony are jumping into the market, third parties may be more interested, but now there's three different types of motion control devices to 'try out', making third parties have to work with three different devices on TOP of their three usual base controller setups.  So on top of the weak support they were showing for getting into motion controls when Nintendo was 'innovating' the product, now they have three different motion venues to think about....its basically just like the console wars all over again...with motion controls.

Topping all this off, we don't even know if players, the people who actually buy the games, will support the Natal and Sony Wand yet....

My guesses

- About as powerful as the PS3 with more RAM perhaps
- About the same size as the current Wii
- A refined/more accurate Wiimote (WM+, vitality sensor built-in?)
- A camera/microphone sensor bar
- One other new kind of input ... beyond the Balance Board or Vitality Sensor but not VR
- Backwards compatible with Wii
- More streamlined/unified "Nintendo Network" (for use with Wii 2 + DS2)
- Summer (yes, summer, not fall) 2011 release date so early adopters get theirs then another wave of sales for the holidays.

I'm going to make a few radical guesses (most of them likely wont happen, but I would like to see):

- 1080p support, possible upscaling of previous 2 generation systems
- Media would probably be a competitor for Blu-Ray, since Nintendo never really had interest in media playback, possibly a multi-layered DVD, Holographic Versatile Card (30GB) or the defunct HD DVD format, each having a good chance against piracy.
- Support for at least 8 devices (possibly 16), backward compatible with Wii devices.
- The main controller could be the "Power Glove Mark 2". Fully backward compatible with the Wiimote and MotionPlus, it would look like a thin fingerless glove, have gyroscopes for each finger, as well as the accelerometers for the entire glove. Wiimote infrared actions could be simulated with the gyroscope on the index finger as you actually point at the screen.

And it shall be called......

WiiHii (Hii possibly for high def, but I thought of it because it's one of the crazy noises Mario makes. Imagine the BIOS startup!)