I think part of what's going on here is expectations management.  If you set Wii expectations outrageously high, then if it only does great that's a huge failure.  If you set PS3 expectations (300k) outrageously low, then even poor sales (400k) are a huge success.

some of us were suprised, but it seems the the analyst was right on with ace combat.

 Lol.

There is no way Wii Fit is going to shift that many.

Why?

1) Japanese homes are generally small. People won't be keen on having that slab thing in their living room.
2) People aren't using their Wiis in Japan.
3) The fitness boom has already been and gone this year. If Nintendo had launched this during the Billy's Boot Camp mania a few months ago it would have gone through the roof. Now though, everyone is tired of it.
4) Stocking the bulky hardware in shops is going to cause space issues.

1) Are you Japanese? The analysts who made those predictions are, thank you for your opinion that this can't sell but I think I'll go with theirs.

2) How do you know? Even if you try to use a "some software doesn't sell" argument, it doesn't prove they're not using their Wii. Some software sells.

3) If you say so...

4) Guitar Hero 

so wii fit takes up a lot of room? seriously, the fact that there is not a lot of room is exactly why wii fit WILL sell well. It is very small compared to other exercise devices, and it's gonna be a lot more interactive and fun.

wtf is billys boot camp?

1)  No, I'm not Japanese.  Do I need to be Japanese in order to have an opinion?  I do, however, live in Japan and have done for the past 5 years or so.  I also follow the videogame market closely.

Have you read the article?  I have.  In fact, I have it right here.  It was in the bin but I dug it out especially for you.  It isn't exactly in-depth.  Want to know what they say about Wii Fit?  'It is going to be the next killer title to follow on from Wii Sports, and will be popular with the ladies (like me).  2 - 2.5 million.'.  'It will attract the family and light user bases.  About 1.5 million.'.

So there you go.  Not much of an analysis there.  Just my opinion though.

The 'like me' bit I made up.

2)  How do I know?  Well, I ask the Wii owners I know how they are getting on with it.  These days, they all say they don't even use it.  You don't believe me?  Look at Wii software sales in relation to the user base in Japan.  Look at how Mario Galaxy hasn't exactly broken any records..  Look at the fact there are practically no third party hits..

3)  Yes, I do.  Just look at Amazon discounting Billy these days.  A few months ago everyone was buying it.

http://www.amazon.co.jp/Billys-Bootcamp-2-Pack-2pc/dp/B000EU1HQC

4)  I don't see what your point is here.  You can play Guitar Hero on a pad.  You don't need  extra hardware at extra cost.  Last time I looked, GH wasn't a big deal in Japan anyway, and I'm pretty sure the peripherals aren't for sure.

Mario Party DS (DS)

Super Mario Galaxy (Nov. 1)
S: 1,500,000 - 2,000,000
M: 1,000,000+

Wii Fit (Dec. 1)
S: 2,000,000 - 2,500,000
M: 1,500,000+

Or in other words....we have no real idea!

Quite a  wide margin for error there, seems like they are unsure about Wii software as they have little to compare it to that has gone before.