@ Alby

Thanks.
I was starting to think very little people actually read the OP lol.

It will do it for sure if its not sold out everywhere. I think sony will have a hard time sustaining the current success of their console. From what im hearing often since the price drop, it looks like a PS3 will be one of the hot item this christmas. Gamer can purchase or receive a console, home entertainement fan can purchase or receive a good blue-ray players (HD is getting popularity you know). On the other hand I dont see why Wii price cut would change anything, it will only help them sustaine the same number on sale because if not they would see decrease after decrease.

Anyway the big problem for the 30 million and more will be sustaining inventory. I predict good premium on ebay.

It's possible if it can maintain 200,000 per week sales until Black Friday as you hypothesized. I can't say this would happen for sure because of the Wii's price cut.

But if 200,000 per week sales till BF happens, it proves there are 50% increase in the sales per week basis. Given FFXIII release in Japan this Christmas, if PS3 can achieve 50% increase during preholiday, attaining this during the actual holiday season should be no problem.

In conclusion, next couple weeks I believe will tell your hypothesis is correct or not.

I personally believe the Wii's price-cut won't affect the PS3's sales in any significant way.

The Wii will see a decent rise, but, I don't think it will have anywhere near th impact on sales the Slim had for the PS3.

maybe 27m - 28m

Yes it can and my guess is it will, Nov and Dec will be huge for the ps3...I think its possible by the end of the holidays the total ps3 sales in Japan will be around 5m...quite possible indeed

29,567,432 units. Quote me, I dare you. muahaha

hell no

For comparison, the 360's figures from last year:

12/06/08: 575,824

12/13/08: 669,417

12/20/08: 861,964

12/27/08: 719,885

Total: ~2,826,000

However, the holiday boost usually begins in late October:

11/29/08

PS3 - 393,697
360 - 718,559

11/22/08

PS3 - 241,262
360 - 399,877

11/15/08

PS3 - 211,378
360 - 302,886

11/08/08

PS3 - 195,940
360 - 267,933

11/01/008

PS3 - 197,257
360 - 211,373

So if the ps3 truly levels off at around 200k (unlikely), it'll start selling above 200k weekly by the first week of November.

From the 28th of September to the 27th of December, 2008, the PS3 and 360 sold the following amounts:

This PS3 would have to sell approximately the same amount of units from now until the end of the year as the 360 did last year to reach 30 million - 5.45 million.  It's certainly possible.

Edit:

Also, both the ps3 and 360 topped 300k for the week ending 01/06/09, which I believe would be counted in the yearly totals, no? That would put the 360's numbers from last year well above what the ps3 would have to do this year to break 30 million.

The 360 dropped to $199 on September 5th of last year.  The following graph shows the 360's sales from the surrounding timeframe:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39677&end=39747

As you can see, the 360 didn't have near the spike the ps3 did following the price cut, nor did it have as sustained weekly sales. It took until the week ending 10/26/08 for the 360 to even top 200k during one week.  The ps3 obviously has far more momentum from its price cut compared to the 360 last year, and it should outperform the 360 from last year over the holidays.  That's not even taking things like Final Fantasy XIII into the equation.

It is highly probable that the ps3 will top 30 million before the year is out.

Looking at it that way, its sure. PS3 is sure to sell at least the same amount X360 was able to do last year.