TWRoO - I'm going to have to agree with the "Analyst God" and say that his predictions are pretty spot on. Your comparing PS3's first year sales to 360's first year sales. This is an unfair advantage because when the 360 launched it had no next-gen competition and I imagine people were waiting for the rest to launch before deciding which to get. If you look at 360 and PS3 for the same period for this year you see the 360 selling better than the PS3 and right now the word of mouth is picking up for 360 and dropping sadly for the PS3 plus it doesn't have any really heavy hitters like 360 does (Mass Effect, Halo 3, Bioshock, The Orange Box). You have to remember that now they are both on the shelves and people can walk right into a store and compare the two. Plus not everyone that plays Halo went out and got it right away. Many people will instead ask Mommy and Daddy to get them a 360 for christmas so they can play the Haloz.

@ The Source

Do your Wii calculations take into consideration supply constraints??

Do you believe the 360 will outsell the Wii the rest of the year just on supply problems

It's a good time for console sales on all platforms it seems.

@krik, it is a benefit to the time periods we were talking about, had the EU launch been in November the Eu weekly sales between Jan1st 2007 and march23rd would not have added up to the massive 500k+ launch week, and the 2 or 3 weeks after that with elevated sales.

@ adam thats a very good point i had forgotten about that, but i still expect at least 2.5 million for PS3 over November-December, which, adding the next 2 weeks of sales for PS3 puts it at 7.7ishmillion for the end of the year (almost same as 360 after first year)
Though i think the 360 will probably manage at least the same as last year (2.8 million) for those last 2 months, taking it to 15 million...which is also higher than The Sources figure.

Those are minimums by the way, i still think as close as possible to 8 milion for the PS3, and 360 i dont think will exceed it's minimum by much, so just 15 million.
meanwhile the tricksy little Wii will at least get 18 million, and probably nearer 19 (like The Source said)

some of you guys are forgeting that '07 is 360's 2nd year.

On it's 1st year, from jan 06 to sept 06 the XBOX 360 sold almost the same the PS3 did on it's first year, from jan 07 to sept 07, that's right but 360 sales on 2007 (PS3's 1st year and 360's second) is up about 5% in comparison with same period last year.

If the PS3 don't start to sell at least 1.5x, 2x as much as the 360, that 1 year headstart will give the 360 an eternal and very significant advantage on it's installed base.

And without Sony pulling a miracle I don't see PS3 doubling it's average sales anytime soon.

MGS 3 and GT5 may pull a couple of months maybe 3 where they perform as needed (1.5X to 2X the XBOX 360 sales) but besides that I don't see how PS3 can destroy the 360's significant installed base advantage.

t-ghost? hmmm

ok if you look at my second post then yes the 360s second year was higher than it's first year (minimally) but the PS3s 1st year (till september) has been almost exactly the same as 360s second year (although it will have gained a slight boost, (50-100k) from the different launch time for Eu.)

And i agree with the rest, i think the PS3 all the way up till at least April 08 will not have managed to close any of the lead the 360 had at all (still what? 5-6 million behind)...which is why the few posters on this site predicting PS3 will overtake 360 sometime in 2008 are deluding themselves.

I still believe the PS3 will eventually manage to catch up, but i think it might be late 2009.

considering the ps3 launched in europe this year, it will be interesting to see how it all balances out by next year.

Just a quick side note:

The Xbox 360 is now 2.3m units ahead of the Xbox for the same week, of aligning the launches. This represents a 24.2% increase vs. the Xbox's LTD sales.

If that trend continued in it's entirety, and the X360 only had a 4yr lifespan (ie, the X720 came out in November, 2009), the X360 would manage a total end LTD of 30.42m units.

However, having said that, the X360's lead has been increasing every week by major leaps and bounds since the price drop. The X360 and Xbox only crossed parity in December last year: it's gained that 25% advantage in just 10.5 months.

If that 25% advantage continued at it's current rate over the Xbox, and the X360 lasted only until November 2009, the Xbox 360 would reach 44.5m units.

Only 14.5 mill for X360 by end of year 2007 is ridiculous. It's already at 11.8 mill today (and will be 11.9 after the NPD sept adjustment). Last year, nov+dec 2006 sold 2.8 mill X360's world wide if I'm not wrong. So 11.9 + 2.8 =14.7 mill alr4ady. Add to that the ½ month of Oct ---> 15.0 mill.

But of course this holiday is going to be a lot better for X360 than 2006. Effects of price cut, Halo 3, Mass Effect yada yada -----> around 1 extra mill world wide.
-------->
= 16 million X360 by end of 2007.

Not too shabby, but not quite what MS predicted at launch either.
Given the 360's obvious price advantage over the PS3 though, not overly impressive for a console that already has the "big guns" out there.