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Forums - Sales - Why I predict First Week JPN FF13 sales to be 1.6 million

Avinash_Tyagi on 27 September 2009
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

Thing is, is FF as popular now as it was back then? FFX-2 sold only 2.41 million in Japan, and FF12 only 2.42 million lifetime, on a much larger base.

In addition Famitsu is predicting a less than 1 million first shipment, so even getting enough software out to do 1.6 million first week is unlikely

FFVII and FFX where the first of the series, IIRC, on the respective current gen Playstations of their times, just like FFXIII will be on PS3. FFX-2 and FFXII weren't.

So maybe FinalEvangelion's arguments aren't definitive, but they are quite fitting. If he's right about potential and Famitsu's right about actual shipments, FFXII could be slowed by shortages, though.

Yes, but those were market leaders, not third place consoles



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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ZorroX on 27 September 2009

PS3 is number one HD console in Japan.
Wii is number one this gen console in Japan.

When you want HD gaming in Japan - you buy PS3, when you want motion controls - you buy Wii.

First shipments could be for the first day, but they can ship more for the rest of week.

Anyway, 1 mln. for the first week should be a minimum for FFXIII, but who said, that it only 25% of userbase will buy the game(like MGS4 500k with 2 mln. PS3 owners). It could be 30 or 40% of 4+ mln. PS3 userbase. And that is 1.2-1.6 mln. in first week.



321tttrini4everz on 27 September 2009

400k 1st week in japan



Avinash_Tyagi on 27 September 2009
ZorroX said:
PS3 is number one HD console in Japan.
Wii is number one this gen console in Japan.

When you want HD gaming in Japan - you buy PS3, when you want motion controls - you buy Wii.

First shipments could be for the first day, but they can ship more for the rest of week.

No Wii is the number one console, period, and more people want to game on the Wii than on the PS3.

Yes they can ship more, but that doesn't mean it'll sell more than 1.5 million



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

sc94597 on 27 September 2009
ZorroX said:
PS3 is number one HD console in Japan.
Wii is number one this gen console in Japan.

When you want HD gaming in Japan - you buy PS3, when you want motion controls - you buy Wii.

First shipments could be for the first day, but they can ship more for the rest of week.

This is something that really irks me. The way people split thinks into extremely specified categories in order to make a situation sound better. Whether you like it or not, the PS3 isn't the winning console in Japan and they are competing. Should I have said the PS2 is the number one gaming console that used DVDs in Japan, if you don't want to use DVDs the gamecube is the number one. Or the PS1 is the number one CD playing console in Japan, if you want to use cartridges the N64 is the number 1. It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

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Avinash_Tyagi on 27 September 2009

In fact judging by FF12, FF13 will sell almost all of its sales in its first week and then die out



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

ZorroX on 27 September 2009

More people? Yes.
More gamers? It`s hard to say.

Anyway, the history is repeating again,
people underestimated MGS4 launch, underestimated PS3 Slim launch, underestimated Tales of Vesperia sales, now they are trying to underestimate FFXIII launch.
Good luck with that.

About Wii and PS3, you do understand people, that difference between HD gaming and motion control gaming, is more, than just between DVD and other media? It is different experience.



Alby_da_Wolf on 27 September 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

Thing is, is FF as popular now as it was back then? FFX-2 sold only 2.41 million in Japan, and FF12 only 2.42 million lifetime, on a much larger base.

In addition Famitsu is predicting a less than 1 million first shipment, so even getting enough software out to do 1.6 million first week is unlikely

FFVII and FFX where the first of the series, IIRC, on the respective current gen Playstations of their times, just like FFXIII will be on PS3. FFX-2 and FFXII weren't.

So maybe FinalEvangelion's arguments aren't definitive, but they are quite fitting. If he's right about potential and Famitsu's right about actual shipments, FFXII could be slowed by shortages, though.

Yes, but those were market leaders, not third place consoles

Evangelion used units sold in his calculations, cold numbers and records, more than personal opinions. And besides PS3 being 2nd in Japan, should this stop its users from buying FFXIII? Didn't Halo sell very well on XB1 too? How FFXIII will affect sales is a different issue, and I won't even try to predict it. Anyway, even excellent PS3 and FFXIII sales shouldn't affect Wii sales, if this is what you fear and try to exorcise with bizarre predictions, almost everybody thinks that price cut and new Mario release will boost its sales to good or very good levels.

 

 



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Avinash_Tyagi on 27 September 2009
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

Thing is, is FF as popular now as it was back then? FFX-2 sold only 2.41 million in Japan, and FF12 only 2.42 million lifetime, on a much larger base.

In addition Famitsu is predicting a less than 1 million first shipment, so even getting enough software out to do 1.6 million first week is unlikely

FFVII and FFX where the first of the series, IIRC, on the respective current gen Playstations of their times, just like FFXIII will be on PS3. FFX-2 and FFXII weren't.

So maybe FinalEvangelion's arguments aren't definitive, but they are quite fitting. If he's right about potential and Famitsu's right about actual shipments, FFXII could be slowed by shortages, though.

Yes, but those were market leaders, not third place consoles

Evangelion used units sold in his calculations, cold numbers and records, more than personal opinions. And besides PS3 being 2nd in Japan, should this stop its users from buying FFXIII? Didn't Halo sell very well on XB1 too? How FFXIII will affect sales is a different issue, and I won't even try to predict it. Anyway, even excellent PS3 and FFXIII sales shouldn't affect Wii sales, if this is what you fear and try to exorcise with bizarre predictions, almost everybody thinks that price cut and new Mario release will boost its sales to good or very good levels.

 

 

Its not my prediction, its famitsu's predictions, so I don't know why you're calling them bizarre as they have an excellent track record, and they've probably taken into account past sales of Final Fantasy, and it wont stop people who own a PS3 from buying FF13, but it may stop those who don't own a PS3 from buying a PS3.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi on 27 September 2009
ZorroX said:

More people? Yes.
More gamers? It`s hard to say.

Anyway, the history is repeating again,
people underestimated MGS4 launch, underestimated PS3 Slim launch, underestimated Tales of Vesperia sales, now they are trying to underestimate FFXIII launch.
Good luck with that.

About Wii and PS3, you do understand people, that difference between HD gaming and motion control gaming, is more, than just between DVD and other media? It is different experience.

And most people have shown that they don't want that experience on the PS3.

 

And I'm not underestimating FF13, I'm going by what Famitsu has said, and based on their record, and what they do, I'm pretty sure they aren't underestimating the FF13



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)