Actually, I think it was possibly the most interesting question I've seen posed on this site which is why I got involved.  It was really asking, "Who will sell the next 1.5 million units faster?" (with the PS3 being given a little head start).

You had to factor in historically high but declining Wii sales vs historically low but increasing PS sales, price drop effects for both consoles, the highest profile games of the generation releasing for both consoles, differing holiday sales effects, etc.  Also, you had to decide whether Wii could reach its target before the (now delayed) GT5 release among other factors.

Many respected people on this site have been surprised by how tight the race is.  ioi's revised predictions had the gap at 400k at this point and he originally believed that PS3 sales would drop to around 20k in the fall and that it would be outsold by Wii every week following the Wii price drop.  He has admitted that things didn't play out quite as he expected.

At this point, Wii is leading by over 100k, but timewise, we still only have a 1 week difference.  Of course, as sales decline for both consoles, a 100k lead is going to mean a greater time lead, but many are expecting another momentum shift through February and March due to the release schedule.

Anyway, until this thread popped up, I had never posted very much because I've usually found that questions in thread titles on this site require no thought and have obvious answers.  This one wasn't at all simple (at least, to me).

If you look at the latest weekly hardware sales in japan, Wii is still slightly ahead of the PS3, despite PS3's recent rise in sales.

Wii will win

True it was a very tight race, and the only reason the Wii exploded was the huge and probably unexpected number of NSMB. Outselling the DS version in the same time frame is one hell of an achievement. FF13 did amazingly well for the PS3, and really the PS3 is outperforming Wii's last year numbers so thats saying something!

Here's the latest update:

Please check newbie's thread for week-to-week tracking of the ioi vs. ZorroX projection contest:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=88468&page=1

1) Last week's numbers were adjusted down for both consoles: Wii by about 8k and PS3 by about 3k.

Time lead: Wii (1 week)

Impressive continuative YoY performance for both, for PS3 a true resurrection, for Wii a sound slap on the face of doomsayers.
But I guess both should sell >200k/wk in JPN and >1M/wk WW during the whole slow season to make them shut the f**k up.

Looks like the wii will win. Unless somthing unexpected happens. Wii is selling more than the PS3 and has a smaller gap. Though both consoles are doing much better than last year

PS3 is 116k behind the Wii and growing, yet you have the difference as 1 week??!!! More like 6!

Wii may end up winning by 6 weeks, but for the moment, the lead is 1 week.  Realistically, it's close to two weeks, but not completely yet.  The criteria is when did the leading console (Wii) reach the trailing console's (PS3) corresponding current total. 

PS3 currently has 316,263 units to go.  Two weeks ago, Wii had 324,578 units to go so two weeks ago it was behind the PS3's current position.  That's why the lead is 1 week for the moment.

Oh i see. So theoretically you could be stating it at 2 weeks soon even though it may actually be realistically 6. Think i get it.

the ps3