ZorroX said: peachbuggy said: What's the point in making predictions then giving yourself a 20% margin of error? That gives you such a broad band of figures it hardly seems worth making a prediction. bat-ON said: NPD vs VGC Round One, Hardware PlayStation 2 146.0K vs 118.3K - Result = - 27.7k (Error - 19%) PlayStation 3 491.8K vs 429.6K - Result = - 63.2 K (Error - 13%) PSP 190.4K vs 164.3K - Result = - 26.1K (Error - 14%) Xbox 360 352.6K vs 352.1K - Result = -0.5K (Error 0%) Wii 462.8K vs 395.7K - Result = - 67.1K (Error - 14%) Nintendo DS 524.2K vs 637.3 - Result = + 113.1 (Error + 21%) Round 2, Software HALO 3: ODST 1.52M vs 1.740 Result = + 220K (Error + 14%) WII SPORTS RESORT 442.9K vs 526k Result = + 83.1K (Error + 19%) MADDEN NFL 10 360 289.6K vs 245.8k Result = - 43.8K (Error - 15%) MARIO & LUIGI: 258.1K vs 186k Result = - 72K (Error - 28%) THE BEATLES:ROCK BAND* 360 254.0K 344K Result = +90K (Error + 35%) MADDEN NFL 10 PS3 246.5K vs 200K Result = - 46.5K (Error - 19%) MARVEL:ULTIMATE ALLIANCE 2 360 236.0K vs 279k = + 43k (Error + 18%) BATMAN:ARKHAM ASYLUM* PS3 212.5K vs 260K = + 47.5K (Error + 22%) GUITAR HERO 5* 360 210.8K vs 280K = + 69.2K (Error + 32%) THE BEATLES:ROCK BAND* WII 208.6K vs 365K = + 156.4K (Error +75%) The difference is most of the time around 15-20% in hardware and 20-25% in software. Okey.. saicho said: ZorroX said: @Noobie, it`s hard to say how much will PS3 sell in first half of 2010, since there is still unknown when most 2010 games will be released. But i know, that in 2008 after 80GB GT5P bundle release sales dropped to around 20k level in November. And this year, PS3 is holding stable at 30k+ levels. That`s why i think PS3 sales will stabilize at 30k+ for most of time during 2010. 2010 first part? I think ps3 will do 1M+. Before any bet is placed, I'm wondering whether you would think you win the bet as long as PS3 sells 800K in the period since you have a 20% of margin of error for your prediction. 1M+ would mean more than 1 million, right? Before i answer your question, do i have to make a bet on any prediction that i make? Anyway, since there are 4 trackers for Japan, i think everything above 950k would be considered close to 1M+.

yeh way to show em, lol, i couldn't be bothered going into all the details, i'm so lazy lol.

IF FF13 did not exist youd probably be right, but it does. 

So they really aren't estimates, given you have given yourself a 20% margin of error. They are more like ballpark figures. No-one is gonna want to take a bet with you, given your totally vague terms.

^Ok, i estimate/expect 1M+ for ps3 during 1st part of 2010. Are you happy now? LoL.

Anyway, i don`t care, if anyone will want to bet with me or not. This topic was about race, about who first will reach it`s goal and why people think so, with their arguments.

It will be interesting to see how this all will end.

That's still vague. Just what do you mean by first part of 2009? First 3 months? First 6 months? You are talking just Japan aren't you? Think you may get quite a few takers for a bet!

even if final fansasy saseen (lol, thats how the japanese say it) wasnt releasing this year it look like the ps3 still would have beaten the wii! so it definately will with ff13 releasing.

PS3 will reach 5 million before the Wii reaches 10 million.
PS3 sits on 3.89 million sales. Momentum of recent PS3 Slim launch with cheaper price. PS3 only has 1.11 million to go to reach 5 million. FFXIII launching end of 2009 and Gran Turismo 5 to be launched in March 2010.
Wii sits on 8.75 million ltd sales. Wii needs to sell 1.25 million to reach 10 million.
Both targets will be reached in Q1 2010, but PS3 will get there first by a week or two.

The updates are hitting the pavement like sacks of wet cement!

Please check newbie's thread for week-to-week tracking of the ioi vs. ZorroX projection contest:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=88468&page=1

Notes:

1)  There were some very small adjustments to last week's numbers (PS3 up, Wii down).

2)  Wii shows as being flat yoy in the "Since race start" category.  The actual total is up 101 units, which rounds to 0.0%.

Hardware Sales, 22nd Nov 2009 / Last week / 2 Weeks ago

|famitsu|
PS3: 29000 / 33000 / 43000
Wii: 29000 / 23000 / 24000

|m-create|
PS3: 34,752 / 38,498 / 48,925
Wii: 32,844 / 26,764 / 31,810

PS3 only had Ratchet this week(a west game) and yet still outsold Wii.
Go Go PS3!

Wii rising, PS3 dropping... Wii even beat PSP last week.