What's the definition of Big? > 500K?

In Japan:
300k+ LTD - Above Average.
500k+ LTD - Big.
1 mln.+ LTD - Huge.

@ioi: I think you are arguing with a guy that had an account here before. Crazzyman, he sounds the same and makes the same predictions.

@ioi - i look more at GT5 as at first GT game this gen, just like GT3, rather than GT4.
Also, i believe, that every hardcore Gran Turismo fan will get Full brand new copy of Gran Turismo 5 game.
I think there are many people left in Japan, which will get GT5 bundled PS3s at 29,980 yen too.

Anyway, in 2 months we will see, if FFXIII will sell 1 mln.+ or around 1.5 mln. first week. That will be an indication of GT5 sales.

Maybe some people which wanted GT 5 havent bought a PS3 yet because it was too expensive. And GT5:P has singificantly less content then the real GT 5. I now atleast 2 guys which are Gt fans and havent bought a PS3 when GT5:P released because it was way to expensive for them and then it was just a Demo type experience (especially if you compare it to the full game)

I bet not everyone bought a PS3 even if he was GT5 Fan because of Prologue. Prize matters.
I dont expect a massive FF 13 like boost but still a big boost.

I think that a lot of persons wanted a PS3 and the Price was just too high so they waited and played Wii instead. I think that PS3 will have someday 10 Million Users in Japan even if it will take time. The market for HD Consoles is definetly not saturated especially in Japan. We can see that HD Gaming has over 50% of the whole market world wide. translated to Japan it means that there are 8.5 million SD Gamers but just 5 Million HD Gamers. So the market is still not saturated. The Xbox is not really a choice in Japan so the Customers will go to Sony. If the PS3 will be just 199. The Hd market will be as big or maybe even bigger then the SD market.

You can see on the last numbers that the WII lost momentum compared to 2008.

I am sure that the people in Japan want the HD experience they just dont wanted to pay so much.

http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html
Gran Turismo 5 Prologue (Asia) 100 2008/02/15
Gran Turismo 5 Prologue (Japan) 690 2007/12/13

That i suppose with DL sales.
50% of Japan sales for retail only GT5 game would be 1 mln.+ LTD sales.

MGS4 sold around 500k first week and now is around 700-750k LTD.
ToV also had 300k+ sales and RE5 already at 500k.
I think, if PS3 can move some high software numbers in Japan even with less than 4 mln. userbase,
then with atleast 8-10 mln. LTD PS3 userbase it will do even better.

VERY true. I completely agree. That is why PS3 is going to have some big Christmas sales in Japan for the first time at 29,980 yen.

LP2, SO4i and FFXIV to sell over 500K in Japan? are you serious?

Also, you set the bar awfully high for big and above average titles. Yet you argue on this thread that titles that would sell 100K could make differences during the upcoming holidays. So basically you are saying below average titles on PS3 would help PS3 sales.

Re: GT5

There won't be a 8-10 million userbase when GT5 is released (unless it pushes back again for another 2 years).

Isn't it GT5's job to create the market/user-base?

What I mean is, what else does the PS3 have which would have attracted the GT core from the PS and PS2?

@saicho - ToV is already at 310k LTD, and probably will end at 400-450k LTD with best re-release.
SO was even a bigger game series in Japan. I expect atleast 500k+ LTD sales.
Lost Planet 2 has good chances to be like Residen Evil game in term of sales.

I only said, that 100k+ titles will help to hold PS3 sales, not move.
You understand, that GT games have legs? 8-10 mln. is a minimal LTD PS3 sales, which i expect in Japan.

1) Yes, it's not a very big sample, but the point was that previous history is not necessarily repeating itself this generation (or this year specifically).  Last year was an anomoly but we may see something similar this year for other reasons like market saturation, true competition, waning interest in motion control, HD adoption, etc.  And even though Wii showed a bigger holiday factor in 2007 than PS3 it's nothing like what was experienced with the GC.  (This isn't meant to suggest that this a negative for the Wii; the 20X boosts for the GC are a symptom of a sick console.)

2) I just did it quickly to get a snapshot and immediately found that the Wii performance was inconsistent with what's gone on in the past.  And I don't dispute that the holiday spike has always been a Nintendo vs Sony/Sega thing historically.  It's just that I think that effect is diminished with the Wii because this is the first generation that Nintendo has made a serious attempt at breaking free of their "just for kids" reputation.  Iwata actually talked about this at the 2008 E3 presser, talking about how they're not a holiday-only company anymore and were now selling well throughout the year.  But an effect of that is that you're not going to see them do such disproportionate sales over the holidays.  Again, this isn't a criticism of the Wii; it means they have a more diverse  audience and basically it's a lot healthier position to be in.

3) Not exactly true, of course.  Sony owned Christmas for two generations and they weren't just being bought for teens and adults.  Just because Nintendo saw spikes of 20X over the holidays didn't mean they came anywhere close to being competitive in the console market.  That being said, Wii is clearly the most kid-friendly (but thankfully not kid-exclusive) console this generation.  And imo the PS3 is probably the least kid-friendly console of all time (except maybe 3DO) so when no other factors are considered, Wii should always dominate the holidays.  But...

4) Jumping the gun on the "10M" a bit, no?  It hasn't won just yet! ;)  Anyway... Yes, I acknowledge that many former PS2 owners have switched to Wii.  Conceivably, Sony may have lost 8.5 million former customers already.  But for this holiday we have to look at everyone who hasn't jumped into the current generation yet.  I've seen the remaining potential Japanese buyer profiled something as follows: a) owns a PS2 or does not own a console and b) has little or no interest in owning a Wii as evidenced by not buying one yet.  These are not my ideas, but I think Nintendo must look at this as a significant challenge.  I keep seeing all this expectation that NSMBW is going to convert all these people, but it seems dicey to me.  They've been playing 3D games on their TV's for the last generation or two (on Sony consoles even), haven't been won over by the decent price point or motion control or Wii Fit or SMG or Zelda or Brawl or Mario Kart.  But 2D Mario is going to do what all those other factors didn't?  Guess we'll see.  There is the price cut, too, I suppose.

And finally, I read an analyst's take a couple of weeks ago and he summed up with what he thinks might be the biggest factor going into Christmas:  this industry loves momentum.