ioi said:
1) Well you have 2007 and 2008 so hardly a huge data sample and 2007 shows the same pattern as last gen. The anomaly is 2008 and if you examine the year it is obvious why it is an anomaly. 2008 started enormously with Wii Fit, Mario Kart and Brawl and ended very weak with Animal Crossing. 2009 didn't start particularly strong and had a price cut towards the end of the year - so 2009 becomes a total reversal of 2008 so you'd be expecting your factor to be back to 10-15 kinda levels. 2008 is the exception to the rule and purely due to the huge (and totally unprecidented) sales that were seen in Jan-May. 2) Why not continue for other generations and handhelds - I think you'll quickly discover that is is purely a Nintendo and Sony thing. Even in the case of SNES which was pretty much unchallenged as the lead console and more akin to PS1/PS2 than GC/N64 (strong software all year long, lead format etc) shows the "Nintendo holiday boost". Also do Xbox360, DS, PSP if you want. Also, if you really want to do a complete job, take an average of the 3 big holiday weeks - always the last 2 in December and first in Jan and compare that to the yearly average - or if you REALLY want to do it properly you'd compare to, say, the Jan-Nov average since Gamecube probably sold 1/2 of the whole year sales in December alone. Honestly this is very much a Nintendo and Sony/MS/Sega thing, not just GC vs PS2 or 2nd format vs lead format although I agree that Wii won't see the same boosts as Gamecube did since it sells better all year round due to more (mainly 3rd party) software. 3) I'm not sure about the whole "buying for yourself" - it is simply a case of what systems people buy for kids at christmas and that will always be Nintendo. 4) I'd suggest that with 10m Wiis already out there, a lot of PS2 owners have already upgraded or rather switched to Wii. Japan is far less brand-conscious than other countries - just look at how everyone jumped Nintendo - Sony with PS / N64. They followed the games - Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, huge new titles like Biohazard and Tekken completely sold the Japanese public on PS. N64 had the huge games (Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda) but one every 12 months wasn't enough to compete. Unfortunately, a lot of this gen has already been defined in Japan - Wii has Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, games that were previously PS-only like Samurai Warriors and Super Robot Wars are now on Wii - a lot of publishers are following the larger userbase since they know that is how they make money. I'd say the PS2 audience has been split in two in Japan - those wanting Tekken, Bayonetta etc are going to be getting PS3s, those wanting the more casual and less graphical titles have Wiis. So I'm not sure that there is this huge PS2 userbase waiting to upgrade - a lot of the PS2 userbase is a very casual audience and many will have a Wii by now. |
1) Yes, it's not a very big sample, but the point was that previous history is not necessarily repeating itself this generation (or this year specifically). Last year was an anomoly but we may see something similar this year for other reasons like market saturation, true competition, waning interest in motion control, HD adoption, etc. And even though Wii showed a bigger holiday factor in 2007 than PS3 it's nothing like what was experienced with the GC. (This isn't meant to suggest that this a negative for the Wii; the 20X boosts for the GC are a symptom of a sick console.)
2) I just did it quickly to get a snapshot and immediately found that the Wii performance was inconsistent with what's gone on in the past. And I don't dispute that the holiday spike has always been a Nintendo vs Sony/Sega thing historically. It's just that I think that effect is diminished with the Wii because this is the first generation that Nintendo has made a serious attempt at breaking free of their "just for kids" reputation. Iwata actually talked about this at the 2008 E3 presser, talking about how they're not a holiday-only company anymore and were now selling well throughout the year. But an effect of that is that you're not going to see them do such disproportionate sales over the holidays. Again, this isn't a criticism of the Wii; it means they have a more diverse audience and basically it's a lot healthier position to be in.
3) Not exactly true, of course. Sony owned Christmas for two generations and they weren't just being bought for teens and adults. Just because Nintendo saw spikes of 20X over the holidays didn't mean they came anywhere close to being competitive in the console market. That being said, Wii is clearly the most kid-friendly (but thankfully not kid-exclusive) console this generation. And imo the PS3 is probably the least kid-friendly console of all time (except maybe 3DO) so when no other factors are considered, Wii should always dominate the holidays. But...
4) Jumping the gun on the "10M" a bit, no? It hasn't won just yet! ;) Anyway... Yes, I acknowledge that many former PS2 owners have switched to Wii. Conceivably, Sony may have lost 8.5 million former customers already. But for this holiday we have to look at everyone who hasn't jumped into the current generation yet. I've seen the remaining potential Japanese buyer profiled something as follows: a) owns a PS2 or does not own a console and b) has little or no interest in owning a Wii as evidenced by not buying one yet. These are not my ideas, but I think Nintendo must look at this as a significant challenge. I keep seeing all this expectation that NSMBW is going to convert all these people, but it seems dicey to me. They've been playing 3D games on their TV's for the last generation or two (on Sony consoles even), haven't been won over by the decent price point or motion control or Wii Fit or SMG or Zelda or Brawl or Mario Kart. But 2D Mario is going to do what all those other factors didn't? Guess we'll see. There is the price cut, too, I suppose.
And finally, I read an analyst's take a couple of weeks ago and he summed up with what he thinks might be the biggest factor going into Christmas: this industry loves momentum.
