Wii does have a stronger lineup for 2009 but I think PS3 has a stronger start for 2010 and that's when I see this race ending. I also think that Wii having a bigger userbase makes it harder for software to move hardware, as plenty of people already have one. PS3 has just been rebranded and I think that makes it the new hot item with a higher sales potential for the holidays since less people own a PS3 at the moment. Zorro sums up my thoughts pretty well actually. I don't think it will last though, I think Wii will remain the dominate console in Japan, PS3 will just have a nice holiday this year as many things have fallen into place for it.

Besides, you said Wii would be outselling PS3 every week in Japan as of two weeks ago, how does them now being neck and neck mean Wii has a better chance than it did before when you expected it to be winning? I'd say PS3 is holding up quite well. Very close race until the end I say.

Wii!

History of this gen certainly supports your case ioi. I think you've made the most logical conclusion based on data but I'd argue that PS3 has had weak holiday seasons because it was an overpriced console lacking huge games. Now that has changed and I believe we're going to see a different PS3 sales wise. I don't think it would drop as fast as you do if there were no new releases. You're treating PS3 like it was the same console it was a year ago that just had a temporary boost and I'm treating it as a re-branded console that's going to have a different set of legs in the sales market. I could be way off but that's my best prediction as of now.

I agree that Wii has the stronger lineup but I don't know if that is going to equal higher software sales. Wii Sports and Wii Fit will sell like crazy but are they going to bring in people that didn't play the original games in the series? It comes down to Mario vs Final Fantasy and I think the power of Final Fantasy is seriously being underestimated here. Now I'm gonna go look at some old data to get a better feel for this, I admit I made my prediction based on memory and didn't bother to look stuff up.

For the record I'm not attacking you. As for Mario Kart and Wii Fit, they were the first versions of the game on the Wii. I wouldn't expect a Mario Kart Wii 2 to reach out to tons of new people that the original somehow missed. I can see stuff like NSMB selling a ton of Wii consoles but not sequels to existing Wii titles. Just like I wouldn't expect a huge boost in PS3 for Final Fantasy VS XIII. I believe FFXIII is selling to a base that hasn't been tapped yet on PS3 and no Wii game is really doing that aside from maybe NSMB. We shall see.

Any reason, why PS3 won`t make PS2 2004 level sales during Christmas season? PS3 is now affordable and getting FFXIII. I expect huge PS3 sales in Japan during that period. And last year Wii level sales, for this year Wii sales.

Also Famitsu:

PS3: 50 - 37 - 29 - 27
vs
Wii: 13 - 32 - 29 - 27

I expected Uncharted 2 to sell 75k first week and 30-40k for PS3. But sicne, Uncharted 2 sold only 55k, i don`t think Uncharted 2 made any significant boost either this week.

It also possible, that Wii pricecut effected PS3 sales. Overall, PS3 is still holding good against Wii.

Am I reading that wrong or are your numbers off ?

With this week famitsu numbers we should have

Oct 18 : Wii 8.64 millions, PS3 3.74.. ( oct 11th VGnumbers are Wii 8.61, PS3 3.71)

Just factoring this and keeping your predictions this gives :

31-Jan-10 : Wii 9,961,000 PS3 4,543,000

Lets say your Wii numbers end up being off 150k or so (10%) and now Wii isn't hitting 10 millions before march...

of course plenty of current PS3 owners want FFXIII but the same could be said about any big release. The first FF for a console always moves a significant amount of hardware, not 500k, as I said, I don't expect either console to hit their milestone this year, but it came move 300-400k the week of, before and after, which is what you predicted. I just think your Wii sales are too high and your Oct/Nov PS3 sales are too low. And I still say FFXIII is being underestimated. I guess we'll see soon.

Ioi,

you still miscopied the PS3 numbers ;)

3,709,000 + 27,000 does not make 3,706,000 

Small mistake though..

I think back in March this year the Advent children movie + FFXIII demo moved like 70k units in one week, so there is a possibility FFXIII might move more units...

It's pretty close till now, 27k vs 27k We'll have to wait for november to actually see where things will stabalize